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What are some of the real-world consequences to this?

Will China ever admit it? I honestly don't expect the CCP to ever cop to this.

If so, what could the response be? I don't expect any kind of apology or mea culpa, much less any form of reparation.

I don't even expect gain of function research to stop.

Sure there are other environmental problems, but my experience of the main concern of modern environmentalists is climate change, largely because it's seen as apocalyptic in scope and thus the most deserving of concern.

As for deaths resulting from fossil fuel pollution, I suspect Epstein's response would be that we should be evaluating fossil fuel use in its full context. How many lives were saved/improved by access to the energy generated? How many people were lifted and kept out of poverty?

The largest effect in the article is also found in East Asia, which deploys large amounts of coal.

I think Epstein would prioritize lifting people out of energy poverty, at which point they would have the slack and the wealth to get to work on pollution, following a similar trajectory as we did in the US.

Happy to engage, and thanks to you as well!

I see your point, and part of this is the difficulty I'm having distinguishing - and communicating the differences - between the book Fossil Future and my own personal views.

I think your interpretation might actually be correct when it comes to Alex Epstein's answer to the question. He shows that dangers from climate are consistently surmountable, and we should expect to continue to be able to surmount them.

Granted, he certainly wouldn't support literally dumping toxic waste into a river, but that isn't really what the book is about, or indeed what the modern conversation regarding fossil fuels is about either.

Previous eras of environmentalism focused on pollution - acid rain, the ozone layer, toxic waste, etc. Today's environmentalism focuses on greenhouse gases, largely because we've basically solved all the previous problems. Epstein argues that greenhouse gases are not a sufficient reason to stop the use of fossil fuels.

Purely looking at evaluating the book Fossil Future, I'd want Alice to provide evidence that the project she supports delivers energy at market or below-market rates, while avoiding any sort of obviously terrible pollution (e.g. dumping toxic waste into a river). I'd want Bob to provide evidence that the project will impact human beings and the environment so terribly that the energy generated by the project is insufficient to account for the damage done.

Of course, outside of evaluating the book I'd only make sure that the project wasn't doing anything obviously terrible and then be all for it; our society is heavily biased against action, and so I try to be biased towards action to correct for it.

It looks like you are using a double standard here.


Could you elaborate? I'm not sure I follow.

Epstein spends a large portion of the book going into how human ability to master the dangers of the earth's climate have grown with our ability to deploy cheap energy and machines. He argues that the dangers of CO2 emission, in particular, are entirely masterable with fossil fuel energy.

I'm not prepared to do service to his entire argument here; I'd encourage reading the book for yourself if you haven't.

Thank you for the long and detailed response! This was exactly the sort of stuff I was looking for.

I think the foundation of Epstein's argument - that we should be prioritizing human flourishing (which requires large and increasing amounts of cheap energy) and carefully evaluating the costs and benefits of our choices (not just the costs) is largely accurate.

That being said, you've made me think that Epstein's treatment of solar, wind, and other alternatives to fossil fuels is perhaps too short and/or not up-to-date.

Out of curiosity, how long would you expect it to take for a large percentage of the world (say, already-developed economies) to move to getting 90% of our energy needs from non-carbon-emitting sources? Based on my own understanding, what you've said, and the current state of permitting and environmental review, I'd guess no sooner than 2050 at the very earliest, with 2075 being more likely.

I'd encourage you to read Fossil Future, because Alex addresses a lot of the points you make.

One of the points he emphasizes is that (quoted from my response below)

large portions of the energy we need have nothing to do with the grid. Specifically, transportation (global shipping, flight) and industrial process heat (to make steel, concrete, etc.) comprise a large percentage of our energy needs and solar/wind are pretty useless (far too inefficient) for meeting those needs.

He talks extensively about how nuclear power is the best option, and has only failed to replace fossil fuels because the regulatory requirements have effectively criminalized it.

Epstein supports the eventual replacement of fossil fuels with better alternatives, but believes it should happen over time as those replacements become genuinely better in the market, without government interference or distortion.

While I think Epstein's treatment of solar/wind and batteries is too brief, his main points are:

  1. Large portions of the energy we need have nothing to do with the grid. Specifically, transportation (global shipping, flight) and industrial process heat (to make steel, concrete, etc.) comprise a large percentage of our energy needs and solar/wind are pretty useless (far too inefficient) for meeting those needs.
  2. Epstein also points out that replacing current fossil fuels with solar/wind + batteries will require massive amounts of a) batteries, b) transmission lines, and c) solar and wind farms, which the environmental movement seem to oppose locally whenever possible. Just because the technology exists doesn't mean we're capable, as a society, of deploying it at scale.

From the paper you linked to:

For all values of the social cost of carbon, emissions of CO2 have the largest percent impact on the damages from natural gas–fired power plants (40 percent to 90 percent). This is because natural gas–fired power plants generate very small amounts of the local pollutants. In contrast, the CO2 share of GED* for both coalfired and oil-fired power generators is between 5 percent and 40 percent. Although coal-fired plants generate a great deal of CO2, they generate greater damages due to other pollutants

So it does go into CO2.

As for the Value Added, they seem to be using the straightforward economic value of the industries in question, which omit positive externalities just as much as they omit negative externalities.

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