sairjy's Comments

New Improved Lottery

There would be some handsome winners, as in the case of Bitcoin early adopters, also for this lottery. You mean average returns? In any case, expected average future returns should be zero for both.

It is similar enough, that no matter what fancy justification or narrative is painted over, most cryptocurrency investors own crypto because they believe it will make them rich. Possibly very fast. And that possibility can strike at any time.

April Coronavirus Open Thread

I am not sure how it is possible that there are reports in the media claiming a low IFR (0.1%) when Lombardy has an official population fatality rate (i.e official COVID19 deaths over total population) of 0.12%, and unofficial one of 0.22% (measuring March and April all cause mortality there are ~10000 excess deaths) and a variability of up to 10x of casualties between towns more or less hit, indicating that only a small fraction (~10-20% imho) of the entire population was infected. I am pretty confident that the IFR is around 1% on average: it’s probably lower for younger people (0.2%) but as as high as 3% for people over 65. Moreover, Lombardy average age is less than the Italian average and the same as Germany. Even if there could be some age distribution difference they can’t explain the variation in the estimated IFR.

New Improved Lottery

This essay had a very good insight for things to come: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fit the above description.