Exactly! So I think that is exactly the catch - I think the clients are paying for them to manage the money and update holdings according to their somewhat public strategy (following 13f?g? disclosures of what whales are buying has its lag, but can work out if they’re not short trades but long positions.. with limits). So it’s not obviously money losing if they outperform, and we don’t know that they will underperform the index. What we do know is that if they’re charging a fee to buy a rarely changing openly available list of stocks... then clients would be a little silly.
Thanks Gwern! I was wondering if you had any pointers as to where beginners should start in terms of understanding statistics paradigmatically? I've not come across statistics explained this way before, and I am quite interested to learn more.