I remember some guy getting interviewed on YouTube who was making good money selling GPT3 generated books. If this was included in the METR graph, it would really throw things off.
We are cooked
Can I put this up at my school? Is there a good AIS poster like this elsewhere?
Speaking to post-labor futures, I feel that CCP AGI would be more likely to redistribute resources in an equitable manner when compared to the US.
Over the last 50 years or so, productivity growth in the US has translated to the ultra-wealthy growing in wealth while the wages for the working class has stagnated. Coupled with oligarchy growing in US, I don't expect the USG to have the interest of the people first and foremost. If USG has AGI, I expect that the trend of rising inequality will continue: billionaires will reap the benefits and the rest of people will be economically powerless... at best surviving on UBI.
As for China, I think that less corporate interests and power-seeking pressures have plagued the CCP. I don't know much about Xi and his administration but I assume that they are less corrupt and more caring about their people. China has their capitalism under control and I believe that are more likely to create a fully automated luxury communism utopia rather than a hyper-capitalist hell. As for lacking American free-speech, I think equitable resource distribution is at least 100x more important.
As long as the US stays staunchly capitalist, I fear they will not be able/willing to redistribute AGI abundance.