Consider the following proposal: "train an oracle to predict the future, along with an explanation of its reasoning. Reward it for predicting correctly, and penalise it for explanations that sound fishy". Is there an important difference between this and imitative generalisation?
As I understand, there are two separate oracles. No oracles are rewarded for predicting correctly. One oracle is rewarded for coming up with good explanations. The other oracle is rewarded for predicting human's guess, not the truth, correctly.
How do we predict the future with thes...
I disagree. Any self-respecting history of technology includes invention of writing and printing press. Those two are like among the most important technology ever invented. You'd have "information" category just to include writing and printing press.