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I'm currently thinking of how impactful forecasting is. I'm interested to hear about situations where crowd-sourced forecasting (like Manifold and Metaculus) has influenced your decisions, or cases where you've seen it change someone else's behavior. Has there been a situation in which, if you had not had access to Manifold...
On May 20, during her speech at the Annual EU Budget Conference 2025, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated: > When the current budget was negotiated, we thought AI would only approach human reasoning around 2050. Now we expect this to happen already next year. It...
TL;DR: Epistemic autonomy refers to the degree to which you are able to change your mind without letting outside sources, such as social and financial pressure, affect it. To increase your epistemic autonomy, you can refrain from publishing your opinions, reduce your conflicts of interest, or change your environment, among...
Summary: I organized two speed friending sessions that were formatted as social experiments. The first speed friending experiment was organized at the 2022 Less Wrong Community Weekend. More than 50 participants filled a matchmaking survey before the event and were randomly assigned into two groups: one where participants were matched...
Edit (July 18, 2025): While the Double Crux Bot is no longer actively maintained, the code is open-source and available here! We phased out the Heroku deployment for the Discord and Slack bot in May 2025. Thanks to everyone who took part! Edit (April 2, 2024): You can now join...