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Bayesian Reasoning - Explained Like You're Five

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An example demonstrating how to deduce Bayes' Theorem

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The Just-Be-Reasonable Predicament

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Recent Comments

Ok. Thanks for letting me know. I have removed the first example. I was thinking that it would make it simpler if I started out with an example that didn't look at evidence, but I think it is better without it.

If anyone wants to know the difference between frequency and probability. See the belo...(read more)

Yes you can. See this site for what I think is a good example of visualizing Bayes' theorem with venn diagrams.

Good point. Would you say that this is the problem: when you are rational, you deem your conclusions more valuable than those of non-rational people. This can end up being a problem as you are less likely to update your beliefs when they are opposed. This adds the risk that if you make a one false b...(read more)

I agree that this is probably not the best example. The scrub one is better. I think that "moral" is similar to "reasonable" in that it is based on intutition rather than argument and rationality. People have seen slavery as being "moral" in the past. Some of the reasons for this is false belief...(read more)

I agree that rationality and reasonableness can be similar, but they can also be different. See this post for what I mean by [rationality]( The idea of it being choosing the best option is too vague.

Some factors that may lead to what ot...(read more)

I don't think I was very clear. I meant for this case to be covered under "avoid the issue". As by avoiding the issue you just continue whatever course of action or behaviour you were previously undertaking. I have edited the post to make this a bit clearer. I thought about this later and think y...(read more)

Yes. They seem pretty close to me. I think it is a bit different though. I think the bruce article was trying to convey the idea that Bruce was a kind of gaming masochist. That is, he wanted to lose.

An example quote is: > If he would hit a lucky streak and pile up some winnings he would continue ...(read more)

Good idea. I replaced it with "Why can't you just conform to my belief of what is the best course of action for you here". Thanks.

Done. Thanks for the suggestion.

A wrote a post based on this, see The Just-Be-Reasonable Predicament. The just-be-reasonable predicament occurs when in order to be seen as being reasonable you must do something irrational or non-optimal.