I used to work in manufacturing. The vast majority of lead time in most manufacturing processes is parts/jobs waiting to move on to the next step (for a variety of reasons). So all you have to do to rush things is to move the rushed job to the top of the queue on step 1, then when it's done move it to the top of the queue on step 2, etc. It's somewhat common practice for manufacturers to employ people whose job is to expedite certain orders, basically by shepherding them through this process.
In other words, most manufacturing lead time isn't stuff that seems reasonable and predictable by someone outside of that... (read more)
The Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI) is once again accepting applications from university-affiliated groups and individuals interested in receiving our support. Applications are due June 26th.
Winning applicants would be eligible for free services from BERI, like purchasing equipment, food, and software, maintaining an Uber account for easy travel, and hiring experts for research support; see How does BERI help our collaborators? for more info on that. If you’re a member of a research group, or an individual researcher, working on longtermist projects, I encourage you to apply. If you know anyone who might be interested, please share this with them!
BERI is a public charity whose mission is to improve human civilization’s long-term... (read more)
This reminds me of attempts to rate the accuracy of political pundits. Maybe this was in Superforecasting? Pundits are a sort of public intellectual. I wonder if one place to start with this intellectual-sabermetrics project would be looking for predictions in the writings of other intellectuals, and evaluating them for accuracy.
I think there's probably a fundamental limit to how good the ranking could be. For one thing, the people coming up with the rating system would probably be considered "intellectuals". So who rates the raters?
But it seems very possible to get better than we are now. Currently the ranking system is mostly gatekeeping and social signaling.
Thanks for writing this! Specific stories like this are really helpful for me to feel the reality of what might happen, and give the community something concrete to debate about. I think this sort of thing is really helpful and I'm glad more people in your position are doing it.