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prediction and capacity to represent

This seems correct to me. Thank you.

prediction and capacity to represent

You don't know anything about how cars work?

prediction and capacity to represent

It's possible to predict the behavior of black boxes without knowing anything about their internal structure.


That says a lot more about your personal values then the general human condition.

I suppose you are right.

The models of worms might be a bit better at predicting worm behavior but they are not perfect.

They are significantly closer to being perfect than our models of humans. I think you are right in pointing out that where you draw the line is somewhat arbitrary. But the point is the variation on the continuum.

prediction and capacity to represent

Do you think it is something external to the birds that make them migrate?

What is optimization power, formally?

Norbert Wiener is where it all starts. This book has a lot of essays. It's interesting--he's talking about learning machines before "machine learning" was a household word, but envisioning it as electrical circuits.

I think that it's important to look inside the boxes. We know a lot about the mathematical limits of boxes which could help us understand whether and how they might go foom.

Thank you for introducing me to that Concrete Mathematics book. That looks cool.

I would be really interested to see how you model this problem. I'm afraid that op-amps are not something I'm familiar with but it sounds like you are onto something.

Four things every community should do

Do you think that rationalism is becoming a religion, or should become one?

What is optimization power, formally?

Thanks. That criticism makes sense to me. You put the point very concretely.

What do you think of the use of optimization power in arguments about takeoff speed and x-risk?

Or do you have a different research agenda altogether?

What is optimization power, formally?

That makes sense. I'm surprised that I haven't found any explicit reference to that in the literature I've been looking at. Is that because it is considered to be implicitly understood?

One way to talk about optimization power, maybe, would be to consider a spectrum between unbounded, LaPlacean rationality and the dumbest things around. There seems to be a move away from this though, because it's too tied to notions of intelligence and doesn't look enough at outcomes?

It's this move that I find confusing.

Fixing Moral Hazards In Business Science

There are people in my department who do work in this area. I can reach out and ask them.

I think Mechanical Turk gets used a lot for survey experiments because it has a built-in compensation mechanism and there are ways to ask questions in ways that filter people into precisely what you want.

I wouldn't dismiss Facebook ads so quickly. I bet there is a way to target mobile app developers on that.

My hunch is that like survey questions, sampling methods are going to need to be tuned case-by-case and patterns extracted inductively from that. Good social scientific experiment design is very hard. Standardizing it is a noble but difficult task.

What is optimization power, formally?

Thanks. That's very helpful.

I've been thinking about Stuart Russell lately, which reminds me...bounded rationality. Isn't there a bunch of literature on that?

Have you ever looked into any connections there? Any luck with that?

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