Suppose that you notice that on average, green shows up twice as often as red, but you can’t see a pattern to it. If you want to maximise your winnings, should you on average bet on green twice as often as red to match the frequencies you’re seeing? No, you should strictly bet on green every time.
(Anyone know where I might have read about this before? Pretty sure it’s somewhere on LW, but I can’t find it.)
Similarly, if a random black person is statistically more likely to be a criminal than a white person, then a police officer’s or prosecutor’s career incentive is to focus on them.
This analogy would work if there was only one cop. However, if all the other cops are only looking for black criminals, you will have a much easier time finding white criminals because no other cops are looking there. The equilibrium distribution is that cops look for white and black criminals in proportion to their criminality.
A certain percentage of Americans are racists.
What do you mean by "racist"? Is someone who, correctly, believes that blacks are more likely to commit crimes than whites "racist". What about someone who's internalized this true belief?
This analogy would work if there was only one cop. However, if all the other cops are only looking for black criminals, you will have a much easier time finding white criminals because no other cops are looking there. The equilibrium distribution is that cops look for white and black criminals in proportion to their criminality.
What do you mean by "racist"? Is someone who, correctly, believes that blacks are more likely to commit crimes than whites "racist". What about someone who's internalized this true belief?