Scott Alexander

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2018 Prediction Contest - Propositions Needed

You might want to try adapting some of the ones from http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/06/predictions-for-2018/ and the lists linked at the bottom.

God Help Us, Let’s Try To Understand Friston On Free Energy

Re: the "when friends and colleagues first come across this conclusion..." quote:

A world where everybody's true desire is to rest in bed as much as possible, but where they grudgingly take the actions needed to stay alive and maintain homeostasis, seems both very imaginable, and also very different from what we observe.

A LessWrong Crypto Autopsy

I think it says something good about our community that whoever implemented this feature assumed people would be more likely to want to write mathematics than to discuss amounts of money.

A LessWrong Crypto Autopsy

I can't click your link, but I disagree. MIRI got most of its money from Vitalik, who I think was into crypto first and then found rationality/LW. We don't get any credit for that.

Also, MIRI got a 500,000 dollar (why can't I make the dollar sign on this site?) worth of Ripple donation in 2014. If they had kept it as Ripple, it would be worth 50 million now. Instead they sold it for 500,000 dollars (I'm not blaming them, this made sense at the time).

So although MIRI and CFAR lucked out into getting some money from crypto, I don't think it was primarily because of their (or our) great decisions. And if people had made great decisions they could have gotten much more.