Seb Farquhar

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This doesn't seem to disagree with David's argument? "Accident" implies a lack of negligence. "Not taken seriously enough" points at negligence. I think you are saying that non-negligent but "painfully obvious" harms that occur are "accidents", which seems fair. David is saying that the scenarios he is imagining are negligent and therefore not accidents. These seem compatible.

I understand David to be saying that there is a substantial possibility of x-risk due to negligent but non-intended events, maybe even the majority of the probability. These would sit between "accident" and "misuse" (on both of your definitions).

FWIW I think doing something like the newsletter well actually does take very rare skills. Summarizing well is really hard. Having relevant/interesting opinions about the papers is even harder.

Yeah, LeCun's proposal seems interesting. I was actually involved in an attempt to modify OpenReview to push along those lines a couple years ago. But it became very much a 'perfect is the enemy of the good' situation where the technical complexity grew too fast relative to the amount of engineering effort devoted to it.

What makes you suspicious about a separate journal? Diluting attention? Hard to make new things? Or something else? I'm sympathetic to diluting attention, but bet that making a new thing wouldn't be that hard.

Yeah, I think it requires some specialist skills, time, and a bit of initiative. But it's not deeply super hard.

Sadly, I think learning how to write papers for ML conferences is pretty time consuming. It's one of the main things a phd student spends time learning in the first year or two of their phd. I do think there's a lot that's genuinely useful about that practice though, it's not just jumping through hoops.

I've also been thinking about how to boost reviewing in the alignment field. Unsure if AF is the right venue, but it might be. I was more thinking along the lines of academic peer review. Main advantages of reviewing generally I see are:
- Encourages sharper/clearer thinking and writing;
- Makes research more inter-operable between groups;
- Catches some errors;
- Helps filter the most important results.

Obviously peer review is imperfect at all of these. But so is upvoting or not doing review systematically.

I think the main reasons alignment researchers currently don't submit their work to peer reviewed venues are:
- Existing peer reviewed venues are super slow (something like 4 month turnaround is considered good).
- Existing peer reviewed venues have few expert reviewers in alignment, so reviews are low quality and complain about things which are distractions.
- Existing peer reviewed venues often have pretty low-effort reviews.
- Many alignment researchers have not been trained in how to write ML papers that get accepted, so they have bad experiences at ML conferences that turn them off.

One hypothesis I've heard from people is that actually alignment researchers are great at sending out their work for feedback from actual peers, and the AF is good for getting feedback as well, so there's no problem that needs fixing. This seems unlikely. Critical feedback from people who aren't already thinking on your wavelength is uncomfortable to get and effortful to integrate, so I'd expect natural demand to be lower than optimal. Giving careful feedback is also effortful so I'd expect it to be undersupplied.

I've been considering a high-effort 'journal' for alignment research. It would be properly funded and would pay for high-effort reviews, aiming for something like a 1 week desk-reject and a 2 week initial review time. By focusing on AGI safety/Alignment you could maintain a pool of actually relevant expert reviewers. You'd probably want to keep some of the practice of academic review process (e.g., structured fields for feedback from reviewers), ranking or sorting papers for significance and quality; but not others (e.g., allow markdown or google doc submissions).

In my dream version of this, you'd use prediction markets about the ultimate impact of the paper, and then uprate the reviews from profitable impact forecasters.

Would be good to talk with people who are interested in this or variants. I'm pretty uncertain about the right format, but I think we can probably build something better than what we have now and the potential for value is large. I'm especially worried about the alignment community forming cliques that individually feel good about their work and don't engage with concerns from other researchers and people feeling so much urgency that they make sloppy logical mistakes that end up being extremely costly.

Thanks, that makes sense.

I think part of my skepticism about the original claim comes from the fact that I'm not sure that any amount of time for people living in some specific stone-age grouping would come up with the concept of 'sapient' without other parts of their environment changing to enable other concepts to get constructed.

There might be a similar point translated into something shard theoryish that's like 'The available shards are very context dependent, so persistent human values across very different contexts is implausible.' SLT in particular probably involves some pretty different contexts.

I also predict that real Eliezer would say about many of these things that they were basically not problematic outputs themselves, just represent how hard it is to stop outputs conditioned on having decided they are problematic. The model seems to totally not get this.

Meta level: let's use these failures to understand how hard alignment is, but not accidentally start thinking that alignment=='not providing information that is readily available on the internet but that we think people shouldn't use'.

Sure, inclusive genetic fitness didn't survive our sharp left turn. But human values did. Individual modern humans are optimizing for them as hard as they were before; and indeed, we aim to protect these values against the future.

Why do you think this? It seems like humans currently have values and used to have values (I'm not sure when they started having values) but they are probably different values. Certainly people today have different values in different cultures, and people who are parts of continuous cultures have different values to people in those cultures 50 years ago.

Is there some reason to think that any specific human values persisted through the human analogue of SLT?