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seed14d82

>> High decouplers will notice that, holding preferences constant, offering people an additional choice cannot make them worse off. People will only take the choice if its better than any of their current options.
This is demonstrably untrue in cases of suicide. 70% of people who survive a suicide attempt do not attempt it again, so their decision to try is probably a bout of temporary madness / irrationality, and not an expression of stable well-considered preference for death over life.

seed1mo10

Long Live the Queen takes about 4 hours. It would take some luck to beat it on the first try, but generally you win by using common sense and training useful skills.

seed2mo30

What were the most impressive results that were supposedly accomplished? Maybe we should run some experiments to see if they can be reproduced?

seed3mo21

Interesting post and self-improvement advice!

I want to add to that when you're learning a behavior that is new to you, you want to start out in a low-risk setting. You are probably going to make mistakes. For example, when you first try to act high-status and assertive, you may overdo it and come off as aggressive and rude. So you want to start practicing in a safe setting where mistakes won't cost you a job, e.g. anonymously on the internet or with friends. Or if you do write to your boss, have a friend look over the letter. Then move on to more high stakes situations.

Another caveat is that if you adopted a dysfunctional behavior, it was probably for a reason. There was probably someone in your environment around whom the dysfunctional behavior made complete sense and was the only way to get along with them. They may still be around you. Expect them to blow up. But don't be discouraged, remember most people are not like them.

seed3mo30

I appreciate you writing this post! I was curious about the evidence for lab leak, but was too lazy to investigate on my won.

You point out COVID-19 is the only sarbecovirus with furin cleavage site. But couldn't it have evolved by switching host from some other species? According to Nature, "viruses more often evolve by jumping from one host species to another than by remaining within a particular species."

So the general prevalence of furin cleavage sites seems relevant too. Did anyone look into what that is?

seed3mo10

Didn't they demonstrate that transformers could be mesaoptimizers? (I never properly understood the paper, so it's a genuine question.) Uncovering Mesaoptimization Algorithms in Transformers

seed3mo90

Not to mention that the default result of rebellion is failure. (Figure from https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-future-of-nonviolent-resistance-2/)

seed3mo90

OP doesn't claim that dictators are unchecked in their power, he jokingly claims that dictators and monarchs inevitably end up overthrown. Which is, of course, false: there were ~55 authoritarian leaders in the world in 2015, and 11 of them were 69 years old or older, on their way to die of old age. Dictator's handbook has quite a few examples of dictators ruling until their natural death, too. 
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/10/when-dictators-die/

seed3mo34

I agree that it's his main point; however, he's also making an observation that most terrorists are incompetent, impulsive, have poor preparation and planning, and choose difficult forms of attacks when better options are available. The post has several anecdotes illustrating that. 

He believes the incompetence is caused by terrorist acting on social incentives instead of optimizing for their stated goals. However, what if some terrorist group has one earnest terrorist, or what if the chatbot provides the social encouragement need to spur a terrorist to action while simultaneously suggesting a more effective stategy? There also lone wolf terrorist who, while more practical, are limited to their own ideas, so probably less competent than a whole team of researchers.

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