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The signal being what exactly?

Outside of politically motivated issues (e.g. global warming), most people tend to generally not disagree with accomplished scientists on the topics within that scientist's area of expertise and accomplishment, and to treat the more accomplished person as source of wisdom rather than as opponent in a debate. It is furthermore my honest opinion that Wang is more intelligent than Luke, and it is also the opinion that most reasonable people would share, and Luke must understand this.

It is not accusation or insult. It is the case though that the people in question (Luke, Eliezer) need to assume the possibility that people they are talking to are more intelligent than they are - something that is clearly more probable than not given available evidence - and they seem not to.

It also does not present valid inference. Ideally, you're right but in practice people do not make the inferences they do not like.

I try not to assume narcissist personality disorder. Most people have IQ around 100 and are perfectly comfortable with the notion that accomplished PhD is smarter than they are. Most smart people, also, are perfectly comfortable with the notion that someone significantly more accomplished is probably smarter than they are. Some people have NPD and have operating assumption 'I am the smartest person in the world' but they are a minority across entire spectrum of intelligence. There are also cultural differences.

I fail to see how the suggestion that Wang is much smarter than Luke is an insult - unless Luke believes that there can't be a person much smarter than him.

My point is that this bell curve shouldn't be a new argument, it should be the first step in your reasoning and if it was not, you must have been going in the other direction. You seem to be now doing the same with the original social status.

I think I have sufficiently answered your question: I find Wang's writings and accomplishments to require significantly higher intelligence (at minimum) than Luke's, and I started with normal distribution as the prior (as everyone should). In any game of wits with no massive disparity in training in favour of Luke, I would bet on Wang.

Ah, that's what you meant by the other remark. In that case, this isn't backing up claimed prior proxies and is a new argument.

New to you. Not new to me. Should not have been new to you either. Study and train to reduce communication overhead.

Anyone who has read what Luke has to say or interacted with Luke can tell pretty strongly that Luke is on the right side of the Bell curve.

Exercise for you: find formula for distribution of IQ of someone whom you know to have IQ>x . (I mean, find variance and other properties).

There are a lot of Chinese academics who come to the United States. So what do you mean by very difficult?

Those born higher up social ladder don't understand it is hard to climb below them too.

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