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You really should read Taleb; you can probably start with The Black Swan. His terms for these are "Mediocristan," domains that are described by Gaussian distributions, and "Extremistan," domains that are described by power laws.

I'm going to try to make it.

Sorry I missed this. I'll try to attend the next one. I suggest Capital City Brewery at Metro Center.

I recommend a related essay by Hayek, "Competition as a Discovery Procedure."

This is a fallacious amphiboly, so it's deductively wrong. There's no need to even bring up induction here, and Bayesian inference is for induction. It's a category error to criticize that Bayesian inference doesn't apply. It would be like asking Bayesian inference to cook me dinner.

I know this is an old thread, but for any people just now reading it, I thought I'd pass along this bizarre development.

There is no such thing as absolute certainty, but there is assurance sufficient for the purposes of human life.

John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

He seems to have understood that 0 and 1 are not probabilities.

Arnold Kling has some thoughts about the plight of the unskilled college grad.

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