Auctioning Off the Top Slot in Your Reading List

I think the advantage of reading a book over having a conversation is that you're less concerned with saving face or "winning", so can focus more on the actual argument.

Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter

Being a "personal blog" seems like a bit of a technicality when I come to the site and it shows up on my front page like any other post.

Bet On Biden

There's a lot of partisan sneering against Trump supporters on that Twitter account which IMO calls his objectivity on the odds issue into question.

Bet On Biden

The main factors were Nate Silver's record of good calibration, and (alleged) "smart money" successful bettors (including local Zvi) being onto it. I'm still uncertain why the market could be so inefficient in this case, so I'm not betting a lot of money, but it's possible that institutional factors prevent large amounts of smart capital coming in - perhaps directly betting on the election is still too weird for a large investment firm. 

Bet On Biden

In general I'm more inclined the trust the market value than any particular prognosticator. Why shouldn't I be?

edit: The arguments here have convinced me to bet some money on Biden (on Betfair), but today the odds are still moving against him (down to just under 60% on This does leave me rather confused - surely the "dumb money" can't outweigh the "smart money" so heavily? Especially not on Betfair which doesn't have PredictIt's limitations.

Assortative Mating And Autism

Thanks. I was recently worrying a bit about this specific issue, and this is reassuring.

Can we really prevent all warming for less than 10B$ with the mostly side-effect free geoengineering technique of Marine Cloud Brightening?
(Even if cloud brightening is the ultimate solution to warming, we still need to address ocean acidification and carbon sequestration, and I'm not aware of any ideal solution to those problems yet, but two weeks ago I wasn't aware of cloud brightening, so for all I know the problem isn't a lack of investment, might just be a lack of policy discussion.)

There is also which claims that it is possible to remove CO2 from the ocean and atmosphere via olivine weathering reasonably cheaply.

No Really, Why Aren't Rationalists Winning?

The winningest rationalist I know of is Dominic Cummings, who was the lead strategist behind the Brexit pro-leave movement. While the majority of LWers may not agree with his goals, he did seem to be effective, and he frequently makes references to rationalist concepts (including IIRC some references to the work of Eliezer Yudkowsky) on his blog:

What To Do If Nuclear War Seems Imminent

NZ is such a cliche for nuclear escape by now that I wonder if it might be targeted in a full-on nuclear war just to get the escaping rich westerners.

Who Wants The Job?

> I've never heard of anyone doing this directly. Has anyone else?

There' s a Brazilian job website that requires users to pay, though I think it's on a subscription basis.

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