Couple of years? I think we are talking about months here. I guess the biggest bottleneck would be to get all notes into the LLM context. But I doubt you really need that. I think you can probably guess a few important notes for what you are currently working on and add those as context.
"Human-level AGI" is not a useful concept (any more). I think many people equate human-level AGI and AGI (per definition) as a system (or a combination of systems) that can accomplish any (cognitive) task at least as well as a human.
That's reasonable, but having the "human-level" in that term seems misleading to me. It anchors us to the idea that the system will be "somewhat like a human", which it won't be. So let's drop the qualifier and just talk about AGI.
Comparing artificial intelligence to human intelligence was somewhat meaningful when we were far away from it along many dimensions to gesture in a general direction.
But large language models are already superhuman on several dimensions (e.g. know more about most topics than any single human, think "faster") and inferior on others (e.g. strategic planning, long-term coherence). By the time they are at human level on all dimensions, they will be super-human overall.
This post is great. Strongly upvoted. I just spent a day or so thinking about OpenAI's plan and reading other people's critique. This post does a great job of pointing out problems with the plan at what I think is the right level of detail. The tone also seems unusually constructive.
Upvoted since I like how literally you went through the plan. I think we need to think about and criticize both, the literal version of the plan and the way it intersects with reality.
The methods you are trying are all known to fail at sufficiently high levels of intelligence. But if these are your only ideas, it is possible they get you far enough for GPT-5 to output a better idea.
To me this seems like a key point that many other critiques are missing that focus on specific details.
I fully agree. I tried using ChatGPT for some coaching, but tried to keep it high level and in areas where I wouldn't be too bothers if it showed up on the internet.
I think using the API, rather than ChatGPT, is better. See e.g. https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/01/addressing-criticism-openai-will-no-longer-use-customer-data-to-train-its-models-by-default/:
I was actually thinking that having an Obsidian plugin for this sort of thing would be really neat.