Absolutely agree that the diagram omits lots of good parts from your post!
Is "do big damage" above or below human level? It probably depends on some unspecified assumptions, like whether we include groups of humans or just individuals...; anyway, the difficulty can't be much higher, since we have examples like nuclear weapon states that reach it. It can't be much lower, either, since it is lower-bounded by the ability of "callously-power-seeking humans". Somewhere in that range.
What I like about the diagram:
I tried to make a summary of how I understood your post, and systemize it a bit. I hope this is helpful for others, but I also want to say that I really liked the many examples in the post.
The central points that I understood from what you wrote:
Edited to add: The diagram above is not to scale, and distances between the arrows might be very big or small... the order of the arrows is more important, and the sense for how various actions could move each of the arrows.
There are several solution avenues:
While all avenues seem difficult, there is some time left while the "AGI" arrow moves rightwards (currently it's not even to the right of "humans" yet). Of course, no one knows how long, and it might surpass "do big damage" surprisingly early... but my hope is that humanity will have many good solution ideas during this time.
There is also probably going to be an exciting window where AGI is super-human but not yet able to do big damage. During that period, there might be particularly many opportunities to find and evaluate solutions. Could we prepare already to make that period as long and fruitful as possible?
Someone once told me that the odds of winning the lottery are smaller than the odds of dying before the draw. Thanks to this insight, lottery tickets have become a kind of "memento mori" for me, and I'm no longer tempted to buy any.
How does urine testing for iron deficiency work? I was under the impression that one needs to measure blood ferritin levels to get a meaningful result... but I might be wrong?