Sorry, should've been more clear.
I've started work on a rudimentary play money binary prediction market using LMSR in django (still very much incomplete, PM me for a link if you'd like), and my present interface is one of buying and selling shares, which isn't very user friendly.
With a "changin...(read more)
Does it make sense to apply the Kelly Criterion to Hanson's LMSR? It seems to intuitively, but my math skills are too weak.
So I've kind of formulated a possible [way to use markets to predict quantiles](http://www.somnicule.com/blog/2014/03/10/a-silly-model-for-approximating-probability-distributions-through-markets/). It seems quite flawed looking back on it two and a half weeks later, but I still think it might be an ...(read more)
This doesn't always apply. It can, for example, leave you with an hour to kill at a train station, because you decided it would be really embarrassing to show up late for your ride to a CFAR workshop because of the planning fallacy.
Shorter posts when you're starting is a step in the right direction.
What could you do to make reading alone more pleasant, without a trade-off in productivity?
System 1 is the intuitive one, system 2 is the formal reasoning.
"If it's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown flush it down."
This is one of the first things I remember learning, growing up with tank water.