We're now approaching parity between AI and human prediction markets.
See: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563
It's an interesting idea to replace the information gathering of prediction markets with AI [1] in Futarchy. Ultimately, AI will probably be dominating political decisions in the coming decades, and we have the choice of whether that happens in opaque ways, or formalizing such an outcome in a system such as AI-Futarchy as you propose.
One way to get around AI power is to restrain the use of AI to something very narrow and non-agentlike. For example, an ... (read more)
We're now approaching parity between AI and human prediction markets.
See: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563
It's an interesting idea to replace the information gathering of prediction markets with AI [1] in Futarchy. Ultimately, AI will probably be dominating political decisions in the coming decades, and we have the choice of whether that happens in opaque ways, or formalizing such an outcome in a system such as AI-Futarchy as you propose.
One way to get around AI power is to restrain the use of AI to something very narrow and non-agentlike. For example, an ... (read more)