Sonder_Wand

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Conjunction Fallacy

The answers provided there seem not to be relevant to the objection I raised.

Conjunction Fallacy

Is this really a fallacy? In the USSR and Poland case, we might take the probability space in (1) to exclude an invasion of Poland, and the space in (2) to include one. Then the claims are perfectly consistent, since the probability space changes; people just reason with respect to "stereotypical" alternatives.