This post was originally published in my personal blog. > All models are wrong, > but some models are useful. > —George Box This is my current guess at the effect of AI automation on the job market for the following years. I know it’s oversimplified and wrong but it...
Cross posted from sortega.github.io Computers have the need to store huge amounts of information and, at the same time, being able to access that memory at blazingly fast rates. This poses the problem of how to get a fast and large memory when hardware memories are either fast, like registers...
That's a great point. We'll see.
This post was originally published in my personal blog.
All models are wrong,
but some models are useful.
—George Box
This is my current guess at the effect of AI automation on the job market for the following years. I know it’s oversimplified and wrong but it might be useful to share it.
I’m going to assume that AI will automate many tasks over the next decade or decade and a half. That means some job positions will be fully automated, but many more will be partially automated. It’s not as if the job market will continue with its current dynamics until everyone is unemployed at once.
For scenarios with very short AI timelines, there is no time... (read 576 more words →)
My main use case for prediction book are private personal predictions and, secondarily, predictions for a small group, also private. I think using markets for the group predictions is also a good fit but AFAIK there are no private groups in manifold yet.
I was getting a 500 error every time I tried to load it. I've deleted my cookies and I can use it again. Thanks for the nudge!
However, even if PB is working, I would like to know about alternatives because it feels too clunky and usability is kind of poor.
The original link is broken. Archived link.
Miller work was insightful on discarding bits of information in favor of chunks but it was written in a very informal tone. That stymied further research for a long time but when restarted, researchers realized that you can get very rich set of features but about a small number of chunks. See this summary of the story.
Usually, the central set of ideas or concepts of a field or the main points of insights of a book are a small subset of all the information out there. I think it's realistic to target those to be memorized with the benefit that it's easier to go from those to the rest of details either in your notes or searching.
For that reason I have a specialized note type in Anki just for definitions.
Thanks!
Cross posted from sortega.github.io
Computers have the need to store huge amounts of information and, at the same time, being able to access that memory at blazingly fast rates. This poses the problem of how to get a fast and large memory when hardware memories are either fast, like registers or L1 cache lines; or big, like hard-drives or solid state drives.
| Memory | Size | Speed | Comment |
| CPU register | A few bytes | One CPU cycle (200-300 picoseconds) | A register holds the data the CPU can operate on |
| RAM memory | A few gigabytes | 100 nanoseconds | Applications need their data to be here to be responsive |
| Hard drive | Many gigabytes | 150 microseconds | All your applications and data being kept locally have a copy here |
| Internet | Infinite (for all purposes) | 10-40 milliseconds | Technically other people's hard drives |
This... (read 2230 more words →)
Hello! I've been reading some posts here for some time and I decided to write my first post now.
However, I'm unfamiliar with the posting interface and I mistakenly hit publish prematurely. Then I tried to delete the post an create it again but, because of the moderation needed for the first post I don't know if the post is in a limbo or actually waiting for moderation.
I don't see anything in my profile page and but the direct link to the new post works (privately).
Should I ask for some admin's help?
I don't know what you have in mind for "major global economic crash". For all we now, the economy can go to the roof at the same time jobs disappear.