I don't know what you have in mind for "major global economic crash". For all we now, the economy can go to the roof at the same time jobs disappear. 

That's a great point. We'll see.

My main use case for prediction book are private personal predictions and, secondarily, predictions for a small group, also private. I think using markets for the group predictions is also a good fit but AFAIK there are no private groups in manifold yet.

I was getting a 500 error every time I tried to load it. I've deleted my cookies and I can use it again. Thanks for the nudge!

However, even if PB is working, I would like to know about alternatives because it feels too clunky and usability is kind of poor.

The original link is broken. Archived link.

Miller work was insightful on discarding bits of information in favor of chunks but it was written in a very informal tone. That stymied further research for a long time but when restarted, researchers realized that you can get very rich set of features but about a small number of chunks. See this summary of the story.

Usually, the central set of ideas or concepts of a field or the main points of insights of a book are a small subset of all the information out there. I think it's realistic to target those to be memorized with the benefit that it's easier to go from those to the rest of details either in your notes or searching.

For that reason I have a specialized note type in Anki just for definitions.

Thanks!

Hello! I've been reading some posts here for some time and I decided to write my first post now.

However, I'm unfamiliar with the posting interface and I mistakenly hit publish prematurely. Then I tried to delete the post an create it again but, because of the moderation needed for the first post I don't know if the post is in a limbo or actually waiting for moderation.

I don't see anything in my profile page and but the direct link to the new post works (privately).

Should I ask for some admin's help?