Starglow

Open thread, Nov. 09 - Nov. 15, 2015

Hi! This may seem a bit off topic, but I would really appreciate it if someone could answer my question. A few months ago, I found and played a nifty little game that asked you to make guesses about statistics and set an interval of confidence, is mostly about updating probabilities based on new information and that ultimately requires you to collect information to decide whether a certain savant (philosopher or mathematician, I don't remember) is more likely in his cave or at the pub. I've been wanting to have another look at it, but I have been entirely unable to find it again.

Could anyone point me to it? I'm fairly certain it was somewhere around here. Thanks for the help!

The Allais Paradox

Forgive me if I'm misunderstanding something, but the way I see it, if I choose 1A, it means that I am willing to forgo (i.e. pay) 3000$ for an additional 1/34 ~ 3% chance of getting money. Then if I choose 2B, if means I am unwilling to forgo an additional 3000$ in exchange for an additional 1% chance of getting money. So what I learn from this is that the value I assign an extra percentage chance of getting money is somewhere between 1000$ and 3000$.

Welcome to Less Wrong! (8th thread, July 2015)

Hi! I've been lurking around here for a while; I'm quite the beginner and will be further lurking rather than contributing. A few months ago, I found and played a nifty little game that asked you to make guesses about statistics and set an interval of confidence, is mostly about updating probabilities based on new information and that ultimately requires you to collect information to decide whether a certain savant is more likely in his cave or at the pub. I've been wanting to have another look at it, but I have been entirely unable to find it again.

Could anyone point me to it? I'm fairly certain it was from this website. Thanks for the help, and keep up the interesting posts!

EDIT: http://cassandraxia.com/projs/advbiases/ in case anyone else is looking for it.

Thank you so much!