Stefan_Schubert

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Is there a name for the theory that "There will be fast takeoff in real-world capabilities because almost everything is AGI-complete"?

Holden Karnofsky defends this view in his latest blog post.

I think it’s too quick to think of technological unemployment as the next problem we’ll be dealing with, and wilder issues as being much further down the line. By the time (or even before) we have AI that can truly replace every facet of what low-skill humans do, the “wild sci-fi” AI impacts could be the bigger concern.

Is there a name for the theory that "There will be fast takeoff in real-world capabilities because almost everything is AGI-complete"?

A related view is that less advanced/more narrow AI will do be able to do a fair number of tasks, but not enough to create widespread technological unemployment until very late, when very advanced AI quite quickly causes lots of people to be unemployed.

One consideration is how long time it will take for people to actually start using new AI systems (it tends to take some time for new technologies to be widely used). I think that some have speculated that that time lag may be shortened as AI become more advanced (as AI becomes involved in the deployment of other AI systems).

The Death of Behavioral Economics

Scott Alexander has written an in-depth article about Hreha's article:

The article itself mostly just urges behavioral economists to do better, which is always good advice for everyone. But as usual, it’s the inflammatory title that’s gone viral. I think a strong interpretation of behavioral economics as dead or debunked is unjustified.

See also Alex Imas's and Chris Blattman's criticisms of Hreha (on Twitter).

Conceptual engineering: the revolution in philosophy you've never heard of

I think that though there's been a welcome surge of interest in conceptual engineering in recent years, the basic idea has been around for quite some time (though under different names). In particular, Carnap argued that we should "explicate" rather than "analyse" concepts already in the 1940s and 1950s. In other words, we shouldn't just try to explain the meaning of pre-existing concepts, but should develop new and more useful concepts that partially replace the old concepts.

Carnap’s understanding of explication was influenced by Karl Menger’s conception of the methodological role of definitions in mathematics, exemplified by Menger’s own explicative definition of dimension in topology.
...
Explication in Carnap’s sense is the replacement of a somewhat unclear and inexact concept C, the explicandum, by a new, clearer, and more exact concept , the explicatum.

See also Logical Foundations of Probability, pp. 3-20.

Moral public goods

Potentially relevant new paper:

The logic of universalization guides moral judgment
To explain why an action is wrong, we sometimes say: “What if everybody did that?” In other words, even if a single person’s behavior is harmless, that behavior may be wrong if it would be harmful once universalized. We formalize the process of universalization in a computational model, test its quantitative predictions in studies of human moral judgment, and distinguish it from alternative models. We show that adults spontaneously make moral judgments consistent with the logic of universalization, and report comparable patterns of judgment in children. We conclude that alongside other well-characterized mechanisms of moral judgment, such as outcome-based and rule-based thinking, the logic of universalizing holds an important place in our moral minds.
Rationality is about pattern recognition, not reasoning

A new paper may give some support to arguments in this post:

The smart intuitor: Cognitive capacity predicts intuitive rather than deliberate thinking
Cognitive capacity is commonly assumed to predict performance in classic reasoning tasks because people higher in cognitive capacity are believed to be better at deliberately correcting biasing erroneous intuitions. However, recent findings suggest that there can also be a positive correlation between cognitive capacity and correct intuitive thinking. Here we present results from 2 studies that directly contrasted whether cognitive capacity is more predictive of having correct intuitions or successful deliberate correction of an incorrect intuition. We used a two-response paradigm in which people were required to give a fast intuitive response under time pressure and cognitive load and afterwards were given the time to deliberate. We used a direction-of-change analysis to check whether correct responses were generated intuitively or whether they resulted from deliberate correction (i.e., an initial incorrect-to-correct final response change). Results showed that although cognitive capacity was associated with the correction tendency (overall r = .13) it primarily predicted correct intuitive responding (overall r = .42). These findings force us to rethink the nature of sound reasoning and the role of cognitive capacity in reasoning. Rather than being good at deliberately correcting erroneous intuitions, smart reasoners simply seem to have more accurate intuitions.
Coronavirus as a test-run for X-risks

An economist friend said in a discussion about sleepwalk bias 9 March:

In the case of COVID, this led me to think that there will not be that much mortality in most rich countries, but only due to drastic measures.

The rest of the discussion may also be of interest; e.g. note his comment that "in economics, I think we often err on the other side -- people fully incorporate the future in many models."

Coronavirus as a test-run for X-risks

I agree people often underestimate policy and behavioural responses to disaster. I called this "sleepwalk bias" - the tacit assumption that people will sleepwalk into disaster to a greater extent than is plausible.

Jon Elster talks about "the younger sibling syndrome":

A French philosopher, Maurice Merleau-Ponty, said that our spontaneous tendency is to view other people as ‘‘younger siblings.’’ We do not easily impute to others the same capacity for deliberation and reflection that introspection tells us that we possess ourselves, nor for that matter our inner turmoil, doubts, and anguishes. The idea of viewing others as being just as strategic and calculating as we are ourselves does not seem to come naturally.
The case for C19 being widespread

Thanks, Lukas. I only saw this now. I made a more substantive comment elsewhere in this thread. Lodi is not a village, it's a province with 230K inhabitants, as are Cremona (360K) and Bergamo (1.11M). (Though note that all these names are also names of the central town in these provinces.)

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