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Stupid Questions October 2020

Really neat paper, thank you!

Stupid Questions October 2020

This seems like a great question to me and I'm bummed I can't answer it. But here's a toy model that might help a bit.

Take a 2-dimensional spacetime shaped like the surface of a vertical cylinder, with space being the 1-dimensional equatorial circles, and time going vertically. Some of the straight lines in this space are slanted lines just going around and around the cylinder forever, and objects following those as world lines would sort of appear to oscillate around a point traveling along an exact vertical world line.

Anyway that model's only 2-dimensional, and the bigger problem is it's not the right type of geometry (it's Riemannian not Lorentzian). Also the cylinder is flat, not curved. But maybe it still helps.

ChristianKl's Shortform

For what's actually ideal, I would suggest (if you find it interesting) reading about technical clothing for mountaineering and winter camping and adapting that to city fashion -- but if you want some helpful more affordable tips, what works for me is many layers.

For example, long sleeve undershirt and long underwear from Walmart. T-shirt over the undershirt, cheap sweatshirt hoodie over that. Thin pajama style pants over the long underwear. For me anyway, this can be completely comfortable under an outer layer of only jeans and just an autumn jacket up to maybe -15C or -20C.

Thin cotton gloves under big mitts or heavier gloves. Thin socks under heavy socks. For items where it's more difficult to layer, such as a toque or scarf (or socks if shoes limit the room), wool is pretty good and is affordable, thick, and sturdy at Army Surplus stores, at least here in Canada.

I would also suggest, don't neglect extremities or any body parts. For example, I remember once my thighs being very cold wearing only jeans (no long underwear), even though I had an extremely warm parka and was walking briskly.

I've found personally that even fairly thin pajama type pants, if you have say two layers under jeans, can keep you pretty comfortable even up to maybe -30C. Since you have in mind a meetup, I feel that even for example students on a budget, could get extremely adequate winter clothing this way at a Walmart in Canada that would enable them to stand outside inactively for 3-4 hours at up to -25C, say.

Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines

Thanks! FWIW your high opinion of the project counts for a lot with me; I will allocate more attention to it and seriously consider donating.

Dissolving the "Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?" Question

Definitely interested, especially if there are more details you can give about the options bets you mentioned in this comment.

I'm only vaguely informed about options with no experience buying them, so I likely need to learn more before I can ask useful questions about this, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to say I'd definitely be interested in any thoughts you might be considering posting, since I'm interested in this type of general bet on AI progress.

Anyway, I know you can't give investment advice and don't expect you to teach me how options work, so I guess I'm just hoping for details that help figure out if I'm thinking about this correctly, specifically with respect to using options to bet on certain short AI timeline scenarios.

(For concreteness, my general understanding is something like: say I decide the bet to make is on GOOG stock. So I set aside $X per month to buy "long call" options on GOOG as you indicate in this comment. And I should be prepared to typically lose all of that $X each month, unless the bet pays off.)

Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines

I happened upon this website once previously and couldn't quickly come to an assessment of the project, before moving on. I assume from your comment you feel this is a worthwhile project? I'd be interested to hear your take on it.

Generalized Efficient Markets and Academia

In the book Mere Thermodynamics by Don S. Lemons published in 2009, I was quite surprised to read: "While the caloric theory of heat is plausible and to this day remains useful in limited circumstances ..."

This is the only book on thermodynamics I've ever read, so I can't really elaborate on those limited circumstances, unfortunately.

Are there any naturally occurring heat pumps?

I wonder if I'm understanding this correctly: is something like sweating an example of refrigeration, since it keeps the low temperature thing from heating up? And heat pumps are different, they keep a hot thing from cooling down, but otherwise the underlying thermodynamic processes are similar?

If I've got that straight, is any evaporative cooling an example of refrigeration, but the question here is specifically wondering about heat pumps not refrigerators?

Life as metaphor for everything else.

On occasion I've reflected about whether I care about a beautiful statue no one would ever see. Let's say it's in a hole somewhere. I don't know whether I care or not, but it seems possible to care.

You can modify the question a bit. What about a statue not just that no one would ever see, but that no one would ever know about. Or what about a statue that's impossible to ever even know about, like in a separate universe or something.

I've got nothing concrete to add about that, just that your point 1. made me think of these questions I've asked myself.

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