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Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020

Seem interesting, and i want to follow, but the only way i will do that it if there will be RSS feed.

Can you add RSS feed to the archive? i think it should be simple.

Who lacks the qualia of consciousness?

1. In regard to mental imagery and other lack of qualia phenomena, it seems to me that the lack of qualia can be in the other directions in all cases. For example, people who say that they can form mental images, may not have qualia for real life imagery, so both experiences are more of the same to them.

How you can distinguish between those two possibilities?

2. People without qualia (if exist) will have their “real” interpretation of stuff like "vivid sensation of my own presence", and i think that most definitions will failed to find them.

And to be more specific to your definition - non-qualia person will still have awareness for his presence and a self. And still will have more awareness for what he think and his body when meditate.

Sleeping Beauty: Is Disagreement While Sharing All Information Possible in Anthropic Problems?

Really interesting, I like the use of Aumann’s Agreement Theorem, but not sure yet about the claims against indexing.

I have some problems with the SIA vs SSA discussion:

As I see it, SIA and SSA are not alternative for each other, they are both true, and cancel each other, so the doomsday argument is true argument (when ignoring other information like SIA) and also the claim for more life is true (when ignoring SSA) - but together the claims are false. My ranking is evidence for doomsday, but my existence is evidence for more life, when putting them together (in Bayes theorem) they just cancel. No paradoxes.

The Competence Myth

Maybe the incompetence level change.
Yes there are incompetence in the Navy SEAL, but for some one not in the Navy SEAL the incompetence will look like high quality job.

If you are John von Neumann then everyone else seem a little incompetent.