streawkceur

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April Coronavirus Open Thread

I'd like to point out that the growth in India is still exponential (linear on the log-scale) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/. This could be or become true of other developing countries.

India and other developing countries probably have a harder time controlling the outbreak (and governments and the young, food-insecure populations may judge the economic cost of social distancing to be higher than the risk of the virus).

There was a time when the number of worldwide cases appeared to stagnate because of the Chinese lockdown, but this number just hid the exponential growth of the European+US outbreaks.

What I said doesn't contradict any explicit statement in your comment, I just want to argue against the hypothetical deduction from "the growth rate of the world as a whole has also turned linear" to "and this means that the world is over the hill".

March Coronavirus Open Thread

EDIT: The South Korean press releases contain a chart somewhat like the one I wanted, see e.g. https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

I am looking for a better overview of imported cases by country of origin in East Asian countries.

EDIT: I remembered incorrectly, the following is wrong. In particular, I recall a statistic according to which a significant number of imported cases in South Korea in one day ~1-2 weeks ago came from China (~12, vs ~40 Europeans).

If this is true, this would seem to me like strong evidence that China is lying about having all domestic cases isolated, and community spread suppressed.

March Coronavirus Open Thread

Are there statistics/tables listing not only infections, but also not-infections with circumstances (X was quarantined because of contact with Y, but turned out to be negative)? This might help to assess the risk associated with certain situations (quickly buying something in a store, conversation in open air with distance, in a closed room etc.)

March Coronavirus Open Thread

I actually think it is plausible that governments and/or Facebook do this, and it becomes widely enough adopted.

A community-level risk score would already be helpful ("based on estimates in your locality, the risk of contracting the virus when taking a bus is X now...) for individuals.

March Coronavirus Open Thread

Are there attempts to build an app that tracks everyone by GPS, and notifies all possible contacts (and people having been in the same supermarket etc.) when someone develops a cough?

It seems to me that, with a majority of people using such an app, the R0 could easily be pushed below 1 without too many restrictions. I think this could even work when using the app is on a voluntary basis - I guess that people making wrong statements in such an app and getting someone sick amounts to negligent assault in many countries.

I don't believe the claims that 60% of people getting infected - or even a month-long quarantine for everyone - is unavoidable with such a technology, and would like to hear differing opinions/see data suggesting the opposite.