the population estimate for the population estimate of "yes", will still be low.
Thus "yes", the correct answer, will be surprisingly popular.
I missed the 'population estimate of the population estimate' part ... took me a while to understand why you said surprisingly popular :)
Also, this aeon article explains the above concept pretty well.
My takeaways from the aeon article:
Experts are more likely to recognise that other people will disagree with them. Novices betray themselves by being unable to fathom any position other than their own
This 'meta-knowledge', ability to know your beliefs and the causes for them, is one of the best predictors for expertise. Studies that incorporate such data, discard predictions that
Nice article!
I missed the 'population estimate of the population estimate' part ... took me a while to understand why you said surprisingly popular :)
Also, this aeon article explains the above concept pretty well.
My takeaways from the aeon article:
- Experts are more likely to recognise that other people will disagree with them. Novices betray themselves by being unable to fathom any position other than their own
- This 'meta-knowledge', ability to know your beliefs and the causes for them, is one of the best predictors for expertise. Studies that incorporate such data, discard predictions that
... (read more)