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I am looking for articles/books/etc on the ethics of communication. A specific example of this is "Dr. Fauci said something during the pandemic that contained less nuance than he knew the issue contained, but he suspected that going full-nuance would discourage COVID vaccines." The general concept is consequentialism, and the specific concept is medical ethics, but I guess I'm looking for treatments of such ethics that are somewhere in between on the generality-specificity spectrum.

Self-calibration memo: 

As of 20 Oct 2022, I am 50% confident that the U.S. Supreme Court will rely on its holding in Bruen to hold that the ban on new manufacture of automatic weapons is unconstitutional.

Conditional on such a holding, I am 98% confident it will be a 5-4 decision.

I am 80% confident that SCOTUS will do the same re suppressor statutes, no opinion on the vote.

The SBR registration statute is a bit different because it's possible that 14th Amendment-era laws addressed short-barreled firearms. I just don't know.

I'm bothered by something else now: the great variety of things that would fit in your category of counterfactual laws (as I understand it). The form of a counterfactual law ("your perpetual motion machine won't work even if you make that screw longer or do anything else different") seems to be "A, no matter which parameter you change". But isn't that equivalent to "A", in which case what makes it a counterfactual law instead of just a law?  Don't all things we consider laws of physics fit that set? F=ma even if the frictionless sphere is blue? E=mc^2 even if it's near a black hole that used to be Gouda cheese?

This link isn't working for me.

Pascal's Wager and the AI/acausal trade thought experiments are related conceptually, in that they reason about entities arbitrarily more powerful than humans, but they are not intended to prove or discuss similar claims and are subject to very different counterarguments. Your very brief posts do not make me think otherwise. I think you need to make your premises and inferential steps explicit, for our benefit and for yours.

Confusion removed; you were using "counterfactual" in a way I had never seen here or anywhere else. (Is that the best word, though?)

Is the Many Gods refutation written down somewhere in a rigorous way?

I'm having trouble defining your definition of counterfactual. In "Information is a Counterfactual...", you define a counterfactual property as one which only conveys information if the property could have been in a different state. This makes sense relative to the previous uses of "counterfactual" I'm familiar with.

In this piece, you introduce the category of "counterfactual law in physics" including the one "that says ‘it is impossible to build a perpetual motion machine’." Are these two different uses of the word 'counterfactual', in which case can you explain what a counterfactual law is? 

Or (more likely) is the connection obvious and I'm too dense to see it, in which case, can you explain what the lamp's lightedness-status (first post) and the physics law (this post) have in common that makes them counterfactual?

People I know in their 70s are traveling by plane to a large event that requires a negative test on arrival. Based on your previous posts' data, I pointed them to P100 masks and the studies on in-cabin air-filtering. This was to encourage them to wear the mask on the plane (since we do have some apparent cases of adjacent passenger transmission) but especially to wear the mask in the airport despite passive (and possibly active) social pressure. They are smart and motivated and will wear the masks. 

I know "Winning" is a word-concept we probably owe to the Yud, but when I told them, "If you want to Win at not getting covid, P100 gives you the best chance," I was basically quoting you. So, thanks.

this is your second great response to a question on my shortform!

My brain continues to internalize rationality strategies. One thing I've noticed is that any time I hear that the average blah is n, my brain immediately says, <who fucking cares, find me the histogram>.  

That's good, but does anyone have tips for finding the histogram/chart/etc in everyday Internet life? I know "find the article on Pubmed" is good, but often, the data-meat is hidden behind a paywall.

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