I agree with your points about risk budgets not being logically necessary because risks are generally linear and independent. But I think about risk budgets as a supplement to the normal decision-making process, because people aren't good at making one-off decisions in the abstract.
If the party costs 1 hour of expected life, I'll go. If it's 2 hours, would I still go? 3 hours? It's hard to really wrestle with that decision and figure out where the tradeoffs aren't worth it. "1 hour" is already a more concrete framing than "2 micromorts", but you're still t... (read more)
I agree with your points about risk budgets not being logically necessary because risks are generally linear and independent. But I think about risk budgets as a supplement to the normal decision-making process, because people aren't good at making one-off decisions in the abstract.
If the party costs 1 hour of expected life, I'll go. If it's 2 hours, would I still go? 3 hours? It's hard to really wrestle with that decision and figure out where the tradeoffs aren't worth it. "1 hour" is already a more concrete framing than "2 micromorts", but you're still t... (read more)