szezine
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I agree with your points about risk budgets not being logically necessary because risks are generally linear and independent. But I think about risk budgets as a supplement to the normal decision-making process, because people aren't good at making one-off decisions in the abstract.
If the party costs 1 hour of expected life, I'll go. If it's 2 hours, would I still go? 3 hours? It's hard to really wrestle with that decision and figure out where the tradeoffs aren't worth it. "1 hour" is already a more concrete framing than "2 micromorts", but you're still trading off a concrete outcome (going to a party) with something pretty abstract (1 hour expected value... (read more)
To the point on test positivity rate remaining stable: non-COVID respiratory disease incidence is up significant (common cold, etc) - because they are no longer suppressed by behavior. There is a NYT article today with more information: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/22/well/live/colds-summer-immunity.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
It is possible that many people have non-COVID colds/coughs and are getting repeatedly tested, and that is offsetting the expected increases to the positivity rate.
On the topic of Jen Psaki, this was pretty spot-on:
The Onion: "‘And What Do You Want Me To Do, Brush Every Night?’ Snaps Jen Psaki At Dentist Suggesting She Could Improve Oral Hygiene"