Some evidence from research in support of the claim made in sentence 1:
We aimed to compare the effect of a 10-min walk immediately after glucose ingestion (10-min walk condition) on glycemic control to that of a 30-min walk, 30 min postingestion (30-min walk condition). In a randomized, crossover, counterbalanced trial with three (control, 10-min walk, 30-min walk) conditions, twelve healthy young adults (6 females) walked at a comfortable speed during the walking conditions (control condition = rest) after glucose ingestion (75 g). The walking conditions yielded significantly lower 2-hour glucose areas under the curve (10-min walk = 15607 ± 702, 30- min walk = 15732 ± 731, control = 16605 ± 745 mg·min/dL) and mean blood glucose levels (10-min walk = 127.9 ± 19.4, 30-min walk = 128.9 ± 5, control = 135.8 ± 20.5 mg/dL) than did the control condition (p < 0.05, d = 0.712-0.898). The 10-min walk condition (164.3 ± 8.9 mg/dL) resulted in a significantly lower peak glucose level than the control condition did (181.9 ± 8.4 mg/dL, p = 0.028, d = 0.731) despite no significant difference between the 30-min walk (175.8 ± 9.6 mg/dL) and control (p = 0.184, d = 0.410) conditions. A brief 10-min walk immediately after a meal appears to be an effective and feasible approach for the management of hyperglycemia.
(from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-07312-y; emphasis added)
I am a someone who has participated informally in self-experimentation and in quantified-self activities.
Reading work composed by Gwern (e.g. this piece) and niplav's (e.g. this piece), alongside writing in the fields of medicine (e.g. this paper) and psychology (e.g. this paper), has been both illuminating and motivating.
I am trying to formalize my data-recording for SE/QS and have found that the following approaches have not "stuck":
.csv, .txt, or .json filesOne approach that has given me optimism and feels relatively more entertaining (i.e. that seems to "stick" better) has been the following: once per week or month I generate a PDF document (using Python to generate the document w/ configuration and command-line arguments) with checkboxes next to categorical variables I want to track (e.g. whether I have consumed at least 2 liters of water; these are loaded from a config.json file) and EOD I fill in the boxes with a pencil for what I did. The goal is to eventually be able to scan the PDF sheets and automatically extract the data for analysis.
Here is a section of an example sheet: here. Here are some of the variables: □ Reading for at least an hour and a half. □ Studying Anki cards at least once. □ Bathing at least once. □ Making at least one comment on an on-line forum. □ Consuming at least a coffee’s worth of caffeine. □ Going to bed before 1:00 AM EST. □ Drinking at least 2 liters of water. □ Meditating for at least 15 minute
I'm curious whether it's possible to turn a resource, like a math textbook, into flashcards in such a way that you memorize the flashcards themselves, enabling a purely mental flashcard review.
Somewhat related to this: to have Anki flashcards or some higher-level flashcard representation (which could yield an Anki deck, e.g. using a genanki workflow) , more consistently extracted from textbooks and made available would make me very happy; I've wished for a reality in which, on data or code sharing platforms (e.g. Zenodo or GitHub), the majority of textbook authors or researchers shared their .tex files (for others to use, possibly with Anki) or any Anki cards associated with their work.
Thank you for sharing some thoughts. Somes comments:
I done similarly with my CLAUDE.md, including a line close to what you've written but also the line "Please search for and consider other solutions beyond those I've suggested before writing any code." It seems likely to me that there are better ways to communicate this notion to Claude, though, and I've done less experimentation than I would like.
Upvoted on the basis of clarity, useful / mentoring tone, and the value of the suggestions. Thank you for coming back to this.
In a first-pass read, there is not much I would add, save for mentioning that I’d expect (1)-(4) to change from what they are now were they to actually be implemented in some capacity, given the complexities (jurisdictional resources, public desire, participation, etc…).
I have the Myth of The Rational Voter on my shelf unread!
If I have any sufficiently useful or interesting ideas or comments regarding your remarks, I will add them here.
Agree. This post captures the fact that, time and again, historical and once perceived as insurmountable benchmarks in AI have been surpassed. Those not fully cognizant of the situation have been iteratively surprised. People, for reasons I cannot fully work out, will continue to engage in motivated reasoning against current and near-term-future-expected AI capabilities and or economical value, with some part of the evidence-downplaying consisting of shifting AGI-definitional or capability-threshold-to-impress goalposts (see moving goalposts). On a related note, your post also makes me imagine the apologue of the boiling frog of late w.r.t. scaling curves.
Although this is an old question, I want to provide an answer, since this is a topic that I am interested in and believe matters for GCR and X-Risk reduction, though it seems quite plausible that this field will radically transform under different level of AI capabilities.
First, if the author of this post has updated their believes about the field of decline and collapse or has formulated a resource list of their own, I would appreciate these being remarked, so I may engage with them.
Of note, I have not fully read some of these books and other resources, but I have minimally skimmed all of them. There are resources I am not including, since these I feel are not worth their time in opportunity costs.
The following are not put in priority order, but I have provided simple ratings of one to three ✯ indicating how much I believe the books are valuable to thinking about collapse. Ratings come after titles so as not to prime the reader.
Books:
Web-Links:
Some further considerations
Anna's previous comment used the term "proto-model" and alluded to the greater dearth of formalization in this field. It is worth adding here that "this field" (which, at times, I have referred to as "cliodynamics", "studies in complex societies", "historical dynamics", "studies in collapse", "civilizational dynamics"), is a collection of different academic disciplines, each of which has different levels of quantitative rigor.
Many who have entertained theorizing about human societies and their rise and fall (even the notions of "rise" and "fall" are somewhat dubious) have seldom incorporated quantitative measures or models, though I have still found their work valuable.
The authors in the anthology How Worlds Collapse seem not to interact and or collaborate much with those who study global catastrophic risk (e.g., those who would cite books such as X-Risk or Global Catastrophic Risks), which seems to be a loss for both fields, since those studying GCR and or X-Risks have adopted, more readily (or seemingly so), models and mathematics, with a good canonical paper for the latter entry being Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks (2018), and those in the field of collapse typically are more ready to consider patterns across historical complex societies and psychological dynamics relevant to recovery of complex societies under forces of calamity.
Anyway, best of wishes in your studies of human societies and their dynamics, including their decline.
This covers Toynbee, Spengler, Gobineau, and other historical figures in the field of "collapse" or "complex societies", including Peter Turchin. ↩︎
From their sites: Seshat: Global History Databank was founded in 2011 to bring together the most current and comprehensive body of knowledge about human history in one place. The huge potential of this knowledge for testing theories about political and economic development has been largely untapped. Our unique Databank systematically collects what is currently known about the social and political organization of human societies and how civilizations have evolved over time. This massive collection of historical information allows us and others to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history. ↩︎
Scrolling over HackerNews (HN) two weeks ago, I came across a post entitled "Two days of oatmeal reduce cholesterol level". The HN comments included stories from users about how their lives have changed for the better (e.g., fixed cholesterol problem, determined preference for soybeans), as a consequence of consuming oats.
The linked study Cholesterol-lowering effects of oats induced by microbially produced phenolic metabolites in metabolic syndrome: a randomized controlled trial, looked the effects on cholesterol, the gut microbiome, and other related factors of having non-diabetics with metabolic markers indicating increased risks for diabetes eat 300g oats + (optional) fruit/vegetables for several weeks. Finding from Abstract:
The "headline" finding was that 2 days of exclusive oat consumption reduced LDL cholesterol by ~10%.
Upon seeing both the HN discussion and reading over the paper, I decided to (1) restart my oat consumption, which had ceased for several years, due to a fairly consistent feeling of lethargy and tiredness from eating the oats that would take several hours to overcome (I ate oats alone, with blueberries, or with honey) and (2) to see what I would happen if I replicated to some degree the conditions of the study, i.e. I only ate oats for an entire two days.
Regarding (2), I made it up until dinner on the second day before breaking from the 2-day oat diet. I found that (a) I developed a lot of gas, (b) I was surprised with how satiated I felt, (c) I felt that there was a lessened latency with my movements, in the sense of not being weighted down by digestion, (d) I consistently, over the 2 days, felt mildly tired or inhibited. I ate 3 cups of steel cut oats on day 1 and 2 cups on day 2.
Regarding (1), 2 weeks since making this decision, I have consumed 1 cup of oats on average every 2 days. There is still some gas, but not nearly as much as on the initial 2 days involving a total 5 cups of oats. I reserve the oat consumption for evenings, since my work is less compromised then by the feelings of lethargy and lowered motivation engendered on occasion by the oats.
Using Perplexity to examine why I might feel lethargy as a result of eating oats: