Tamay

Comments

Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language

Great work! It seems like this could enable lots of useful applications. One thing in particular that I'm excited about is how this can be used to make forecasting more decision-relevant. For example, one type of application that comes to mind in particular is a conditional prediction market where conditions are continuous rather than discrete (eg. "what is GDP next year if interest rate is set to r?", "what is Sierra Leone's GDP in ten years if bednet spending is x?").

What are CAIS' boldest near/medium-term predictions?

If research into general-purpose systems stops producing impressive progress, and the application of ML in specialised domains becomes more profitable, we'd soon see much more investment in AI labs that are explicitly application-focused rather than basic-research focused.