Interesting!
A Couple of questions:
What does "I saw this" mean? "I already saw this in another place" or "I saw this comment, if it's important"? I think it needs clarification.
I know this is the classic, but I just came up with a more elegant variation, without another world.
Toxoplasma infection makes you more likely to pet a cat. You like petting cats, but you are very afraid of getting toxoplasmosis. You don't know if you are infected, but you know this particular cat is healthy, so you can't become infected by petting it. Should you pet this cat?
I'm Russian and I think, when I will translate this, I will change "Russian" to "[other country's]". Will feel safer that way.
(about "hostile")
https://ui.stampy.ai?state=6982_
https://ui.stampy.ai?state=897I_
And suddenly it seems stampy has no answer for "Why inner misalignment is the default outcome". But EY said a lot about it, it's easy to find.
2. Depends of what you mean by "claims foom". As I understand, now EY thinks that foom isn't neccesary anyway, AGI can kill us before it.
4. "I doesn't like it" != "irrational and stupid and short sighted", you need arguments for why it isn't preferable in terms of the values of this systems
6, 7. "be ready to enforce a treaty" != "choose actions to kill billions of people living now".
Peregrin/Periklynian/Suvinian Dialog!
(Seriously, some explicit distinction between "dialogue as collaboration", "dialogue as debate" and "dialogue as explanation" would be nice. Not necessary at all, but nice.)
It depends.
If croupier choose the players, then players learn that they were chosen, then croupier roll the dice, then players either get bajillion dollars each or die, then (if not snake eyes) croupier choose next players and so on - answer is 1/36.
If croupier choose the players, then roll the dice, then (if not snake eyes) croupier choose next players and so on, and only when dice come up snake eyes players learn that they were chosen, and then last players die and all other players get bajillion dollars each - answer is about 1/2.