Ted Sanders
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Ted Sanders has not written any posts yet.
Ted Sanders has not written any posts yet.
Hmm. I find it difficult to form an opinion on a claim as fuzzy as this. I am sensitive of appearing over-critical, but I worry that Arbital will not be useful in building up knowledge or changing any minds if everyone ends up disagreeing over what the claims even mean. If Arbital is to be useful or impactful, and not just a way to signal our opinions at each other, I really think a strong priority needs to be developing community standards for claims.
Here are some of my concerns with this claim in particular:
(1) What is meant by "many"? 5? 50? 500? I honestly have no clue. And therefore if someone agrees... (read more)
Suggested edit: remove the word 'permanent' from the claim. It seems a little funny in the context of x-risk. I think 'self-sustaining' covers the intended meaning by itself.
(My first comment on Arbital. Hopefully it contributes.)
As someone who has traded on prediction markets for years, I agree with the sentiment.
Unfortunately, this claim itself seems really ambiguous. I voted neutral because I'm having a difficult time evaluating what the claim means. I appreciate the attempted clarification of 'at least 30% more valuable to people sharing models', but it leaves me confused. How is value measured? How would I be able to distinguish 20% more valuable from 40% more valuable? And who are these people sharing models? When and where are they doing their sharing?
I think we all agree that language will always have some wiggle room for uncertainty and interpretation. But... (read more)
@Ben Pace: For a brand-new, never-been-tested, fully self-sustaining off-Earth colony, $50B seems super low to me. I think it's got to be in the many many trillions at the very minimum. For some time scales, even infinite money might not be enough. Creating a whole robot/non-atmosphere economy with positive energy ROI is something that no one knows how to do. Much of today's wealth comes from cheap human labor and massive economies of scale. An off-Earth colony would possess neither of these advantages.