I think that's how I'd use this as well.
I don't think that solves the problem though. There are a lot of people, and many of them believe very unlikely models. Any model we (lesswrong-ish) people spend time discussing is going to be vastly more likely than a randomly selected human-thought-about model.
I realise this is getting close to reference class tennis, sorry.
Any model we actually spend time talking about is going to be vastly above the base rate, though. Because most human-considered models are very nonsensical/unlikely.
At first I was dubious about the framing of a "shifting" n-dimensional landscape, because in a sense the landscape is fixed in 2n dimensions (I think?), but you've convinced me this is a useful tool to think about/discuss these issues. Thanks for writing this!
Epistemic status: gross over-simplification, and based on what I remember from reading this 6 months ago.
This paper resolved many quesitons I had left with MWI. Relevantly here, I think it argues that the number of worlds doesn't grow because there was already an infinity of them through space.
Observing an experiment is then equivalent to locating yourself in space. Worlds splitting is the process where identical regions of the universe become different.
The scoring system incentivizes predicting your true credence, (gory details here).
I think Metaculus rewarding participation is one of the reasons it has participation. Metaculus can discriminate good predictors from bad predictors because it has their track record (I agree this is not the same as discriminating good/bad predictions). This info is incorporated in the Metaculus prediction, which is hidden by default, but you can unlock with on-site fake currency.
You could also check their track record. It has a calibration curve and much more.
This feels related to Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided: anything that's obvious does not even enter into consideration, so you only have difficult choices to make.
Don't you mean that it will damage the institutions built on intellectual dark matter? Did I miss something?
This was interesting. I think I missed an assumption somewhere, because for p=n, it seems that the penalty is ≈2σ, which seems very low for a n-degree polynomial fitted on n points.