LESSWRONG
LW

TerriLeaf
6330
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
Direct Realism is probably false
TerriLeaf4mo10

I really can't steelman DR, it took me a while just to understand it. Optical illusions aren't very problematic to DRs since they can simply blame our own misunderstanding of the world, a pencil half submerged in water appears bent due to diffraction but since this is natural then there's no problem, it is your own misunderstanding of optics that leads you to the mistaken opinion of the pencil being crooked. 

Reply
Direct Realism is probably false
TerriLeaf4mo10

To be honest I haven't seen any statistics or anything like that, I state that based on my personal experience. I used to be active on a neurology server and basically everyone was some form of DRs (most were doctors and higher education).

DR is also considered a pretty orthodox view among philosophers.

Reply
MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy
TerriLeaf1y41

I am not an expert, however I'd like to make a suggestion regarding the strategy. The issue I see with this approach is that policymakers have a very bad track record of listening to actual technical people (see environmental regulations).

Generally speaking they will only listen when this is convenient to them (some immediate material benefit is on the table), or if there is very large popular support, in which case they will take action in the way that allows them to put the least effort they can get away with.

There is, however, one case where technical people can get their way (at times): Military analysts

Strategic analysts to be more precise; apparently the very real threat of nuclear war is enough to actually get some things done. Nuclear weapons share some qualities with AI systems envisioned by MIRI: 

  • They can "end the world"
  • They have been successfully contained (only a small number of actors have access to them)
  • World-wide, Industry-wide control on their development
  • At one point, there were serious discussion of halting development altogether
  • "Control" has persisted over long time periods
  • No rogue user (as of now)

I think military analysts could be a good target to try to reach out to, they are more likely to listen and understand technical arguments than policymakers for sure, and they already have experience in navigating the political world. In an ideal scenario AI could be treated like another class of WMDs like nuclear, chemical and bioweapons.

Reply1
-3Direct Realism is probably false
4mo
19
9Supermen of the (Not so Far) Future
4mo
0
1Can time preferences make AI safe?
6mo
1