What do you mean 'problem'? Everybody involved wants the inspection to go well, the correlation between the outcome of the inspection and the quality of the school/firm's books is incidental at best.
This is a very good point, and in my eyes explains the observations pretty much completely. Thanks!
(yet it was contained in the UK, which is great and suggests I'm talking BS)
I continue to be extremely surprised by the UK decline in numbers. The Netherlands is reporting a current estimated R of 1.1-1.2 for the English strain and 0.8-0.9 for the wild types. They furthermore estimate that just over half of all newly reported cases are English strain by now. But the UK daily cases have dropped by 80% in 40 days, which at a reproduction time of 6 days would mean R = 0.79 throughout.
In the past I suggested a few potential, not mutually exclusive, explanations:
I previously put my money on hypothesis number 5, but as time goes on it steadily loses credibility. If anybody has a suggestion for what's going on in the UK right now I'm all ears, I am currently not taking their drop in cases at face value.
The loss of life and health of innocent people who got suckered into a political issue without considering the ramifications?
I mean, the group of people who holds out on getting a vaccine as long as possible will definitely be harder to convince than the average citizen. But with these numbers (death rate, long term health conditions, effectiveness of vaccines) around are you seriously suggesting trying to help them is not cost-effective? From the post I think you're talking about tens of millions of people in the USA alone, if not 100M+.
I personally have a very tough time fitting your interpretation into my model of the world. To me the popularity and actions of Facebook et al. are mostly disconnected from our ability to communicate with family and close friends.
In my opinion the timeline seems to be a little more as follows:
I'd like to couple this with a prediction that Facebook will not start censoring older messaged by the WHO and other Respected Officials. I see Facebook's cooperation more as a power grab with plausible deniability than a desire for certain messages (officially endorsed) over others (crackpot/other). It only exists through the support of the very serious people, so it is counterproductive to start challenging them on their own history.
Lastly I think that if you genuinely want to have a heart-to-heart with your friends and family it is silly to restrict yourself to communicating via Facebook. Call them, start a blog, meet somewhere outside for a walk if you want. This has the twin benefit of you not having to worry about issues being 'controversial' as defined by Facebook, and them not having to publicly change their thoughts over your message. Also it is much less embarrassing if it turns out you were unbelievably overconfident all along.
You are correct, but the hope is that the probabilities involved stay low enough that a linear approximation is reasonable. Using for example https://www.microcovid.org/, typical events like a shopping trip carry infection risks well below 1% (dependent on location, duration of activity and precautions etc.).
I meant after the first shot, sorry for the confusion.
I think ojno has a point. Furthermore, to the best of my knowledge the protection from the vaccines takes a bit of time (10 days? 14 days?) to kick in after the vaccination. Arguably "proceed with the same caution as before" is a better message than "go nuts, dance and hug and visit all your friends" in this period, and for simplicity's sake this has become the default message.
Who am I kidding, this is of course because we don't want vaccination to be unfair. If you get social benefits from being vaccinated (by not having to abide by some of the restrictions) then the prioritisation discussion would be even fiercer than it is now. Plus, the more Sacrifices to the Gods you publicly support (h/t Svi) the more of a Serious Person you are, which the CDC tries very hard to be.
Mathoverflow has discussion on it. In short:
It was pointed out to me that it is really not accurate to consider the UK daily COVID numbers as a single data-point. There could be any number of possible explanations for the decrease in the numbers. Some possible explanations include:
Most notably, hypotheses 2 & 3 predict that the stagnation will soon reverse back into acceleration (with hypothesis 3 predicting a far higher rate than 2), as the English variant becomes more prevalent throughout the rest of the UK. Let's hope the answer is door number 1?