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Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments

Also worth noting is that despite their massive lead in vaccinations, Israel’s short term situation in terms of cases is quite bad. They test a lot, so their positive rate is still only a little over 6%, and their death rates remain well behind ours, but it’s clear that the vaccines have not let them turn the corner on infections yet despite being over 20% complete. I do expect them to turn the death rate corner soon, since so many of their vulnerable are now protected, but it seems infections are continuing to rise.

I wouldn't expect vaccinating the vulnerable to have much effect on the infection rate. No?

Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns

Because I’ve certainly learned my lesson and I’m not at all bitter about it or saying I Told You So over and over again in great detail:

What was that lesson?

AstraZeneca has vowed not to make a profit on their vaccine ‘until the pandemic is over.’ They have also declared the right to declare the pandemic ‘over’ in July 2021. So due to the fear that someone, somewhere, might be earning a profit, a major corporation makes money if they sell doses after July 2021, but not if they sell them before July 2021. I wonder what they will do. (Original Hat Tip)

Maybe what they mean is that until then it goes toward paying for the development or other fixed costs, so it still could work out. At least i hope it's that way.

Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns

If you have the choice it seems simpler and safer to order no vaccine. Especially if you're hardly getting paid anyway.

Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns

Not having neutralizing antibodys doesn't mean you're not immune, or at least partially immune. People still have many antibodys against the virus.

Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling

People react to levels, not rates of change. Things rapidly getting worse or better doesn’t much matter to them. Mainly they care about how dangerous things seem to be. This is a lot of the evidence for pandemic fatigue – if we are stabilized at relatively high levels now versus before, despite substantial immunity and better knowledge, there must be a factor pushing in the other direction.

Or that factor is the better knowledge.

Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling

The refusers mostly don't seem to be vulnerable people (as you would expect). So it doesn't change this model.

Since we are so far not trying to model vaccinations to reduce spread.

Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 13

Luna stepped out of the Forgotten Library. She held the Sword of Gryffindor in her left hand and Wanda in her right. She buried Wanda in Hagrid’s pumpkin patch.

Ow. I feel stupid now. I didn't expect that. Great foreshadowing.

Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 13

Professor Quirrel took the diadem in his hands. He feinted as if to place it over his head. Then he tossed it back to Luna.

“I am an Occlumens,” said Professor Quirrel, “Ravenclaw’s device rips the incoherence out of doublethink. If I were to place this device over my head I would be lucky if it did not shred my mind. Nice try.”

That is the Professor Quirrel we know and love.

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