"Everyone on this site obviously has an interest in being, on a personal level, more rational."
Not in my experience. In fact, I was downvoted and harshly criticized for expressing confusion at gwern posting on this site and yet having no apparent interest in being rational.
"Instead of generalizing situation-specific behavior to personality (i.e. "Oh, he's not trying to make me feel stupid, that's just how he talks"), people assume that personality-specific behavior is situational (i.e. "he's talking like that just to confuse me")."
Those aren't really mutually exclus...(read more)
This may seem pedantic, but given that this post is on the importance of precision:
"Some likely died."
"Likely, some died".
Also, I think you should more clearly distinguish between the two means, such as saying "sample average" rather than "your average". Or use x bar and mu.
The w...(read more)
By how many orders of magnitude? Would you play Russian Roulette for $10/day? It seemed to me that implicit in your argument was that even if someone disagrees with you about the expected value, an order of magnitude or so wouldn't invalidate it. There's a rather narrow set of circumstances where yo...(read more)
"Also there are important risks that we are in simulation, but that it is created not by our possible ancestors"
Do you mean "descendants"?
What about after the program, if you don't get a job, or don't get a job in the data science field?
1% of a bad bet is still a bad bet.o
They should have some statistics, even if they're not completely conclusive.
As I understand it, the costs are:
$1400 for lodging (commuting would cost even more)
$2500 deposit (not clear on the refund policy)
10% of next year's income (with deposit going towards this)
I wouldn't characterize tha...(read more)
Are your finances so dire that if someone offered you $1/day in exchange for playing Russian Roulette, you would accept? If not, aren't you being just as irrational as you are accusing those who fail to accept your argument of being?
You might want to consider what the objective is, and whether you should have different resources for different objectives. Someone who's in a deeply religious community who would be ostracized if people found out they're an atheist would need different resources than someone in a more secular envir...(read more)