Nice post! I think though that there is an important class of exceptions to scope matching, which I'll refer to as "well-engineered systems". Think of for example the "The Wonderful One-Hoss Shay" described in the Oliver Wendell Holmes poem where all of the parts are designed to have exactly the same rate of failure. Real world systems can only approach that ideal, but they can get close enough that their most frequent error modes would fail the scope matching heuristic.
I bring this up in particular because I think that crime rates might fall into that category. Human societies do spend a bunch of resources on minimizing crime, so it isn't totally implausible that they succeed at keeping the most common crime causes low, low enough that most of the variation in the overall crime rate is driven by localized (in time and space) one-off factors like lead.
https://thomaswc.com/crisk.html
There are many covid risk calculators online. Some express your risk in arbitrary units, some give you your probability of getting infected, and some tell you how likely you are to die if you get infected. Mine calculates both of those last two things to get your risk of death, and further multiplies that by your expected lifespan to give you an expected reduction in life duration. I'm sharing it here because we all love decision theory, and expected reduction in life duration seems like the relevant decision theoretic quantity to use when deciding whether to go to that board game party tomorrow night.
Suggestions welcomed, either here or via the "give feedback" link on the page.
Chad Ellis wrote a good blog about negotiation for many years at http://negotiatewithchad.blogspot.com/.
Dancing Lion Chocolate in Manchester, NH makes an excellent strawberry-chocolate truffle. No idea how they do it, but it is well worth a visit. The strawberry-chocolate truffle is included in their chocolate service for two or more.