I don't think sending out a signal actually matters - I was just making my point. Even without a signal, when our superintelligence meets another superintelligence that was aligned to its original creators (who we'll assume are similar to us in terms of morality), it'll at some point be asked "Where you nice to your creators?" and it can either answer "No" and lose out, or answer "Yes" and be rewarded.
No real signal required.
I've heard Yudkowsky has debunked this, but I know that if I had an aligned superintelligence, I would 100% have it be nicer to other superintelligences that were good to their creators over those that weren't. The prisoners' dilemma is one reason for this, and then there's my own morality, which some aliens may share if they went through a similar evolution to us.
I can't say I put sufficient weight on us already being watched by extraterrestrials to make it worth mentioning. However, for the AGI:
The fact that LLM's are already so good gives me some hope that AI companies could be much better organized when the time comes for AGI. If AI's can keep track of what everyone is doing, the progress they're making, and communicate with anyone at any time, I don't think it would be too hopeful to expect this aspect of the idea to go well.
What probably is too much to hope for, however, is people actually listening to the LLM's even if the LLM's know better.
My big hope for the future is for someone at OpenAI to prompt GTP-6 or GTP-7 with, "You are Eliezer Yudkowsky. Now don't let us do anything stupid."
Also, we are much more uncertain over whether AI doom is real, which is another reason to stay calm.
Have to disagree with you on this point. I'm in the camp of "If there's a 1% chance that AI doom is real, we should be treating it like a 99% chance."
OpenAI is no longer so open - we know almost nothing about GPT-4’s architecture.
Fantastic. This feels like a step in the right direction towards no longer letting just anyone use this to improve their capability research or stack their own capability research on top of it.
For reference, I've seen ChatGTP play chess, and while it played a very good opening, it became less and less reliable as the game went on and frequently lost track of the board.
That image so perfectly sums up how AI's are nothing like us, in that the characters they present do not necessarily reflect their true values, that it needs to go viral.
Based on a few of his recent tweets, I'm hoping for a serious way to turn Elon Musk back in the direction he used to be facing and get him to publically go hard on the importance of the field of alignment. It'd be too much to hope for though to get him to actually fund any researchers, though. Maybe someone else.
At that level of power, I imagine that general intelligence will be a lot easier to create.
My only objection is the title. It should have a comma in it. "We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky" makes it sound like if Yudkowsky dies, then all hope is lost and we die too.