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Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket

I'm inclined to bet against my preferred outcome, for peace of mind.

Omicron Variant Post #2

So, overdispersion is as valid now as it's ever been, I guess?

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

"Another possibility, still speculative but discussed by many scientists in recent days, is that omicron evolved over many months within an immunocompromised patient with a protracted infection. In a patient treated with therapeutics such as monoclonal antibodies or convalescent sera, a viral strain that can survive the assault can potentially amass a host of mutations. Such cases have been documented, but they are not known to have led to outbreaks in the general population."


This does seem to be a recurring theme - very slow mutation for the most part, and lots of new mutations occurring in immunocompromised "supermutators".

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

This doesn't directly answer your question but it appears that people who received mRNA vaccines produced fewer antibodies for one of the four endemic coronaviruses than those who were naturally infected. If that's true, it's very encouraging news as far as adapting vaccines is concerned:

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

It seems that Omicron may have mutated over time within a single immunocompromised host, so it's not clear to me how natural selection applies.

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

I dunno, it's pronounced "Kai" (rhymes with "guy") but you might be right

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Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

Is original antigenic sin widely accepted? It's not clear to me that there's a strong consensus based on your link. 


I did a bit of (not very thorough) googling on original antigenic sin, and managed to convince myself that, yes, it's a thing. But then to help myself sleep I looked up "overcoming original antigenic sin" and came across this:

Adjuvants! I really have no idea what they are, but I seem to remember that these are added to all the covid vaccine?

Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving

I'm guessing that the facial hair ban for unvaccinated people has to do with the fact that it compromises the effectiveness of face masks, particularly N95's that are meant to protect the wearer from others.

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