CFAR workshop with new instructors in Seattle, 6/7-6/11

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Straw Hufflepuffs and Lone Heroes

As a Ravenclaw/Slytherin/Gryffindor (anything really but Hufflepuff), I can attest that I felt extensively listened to, and had the sense that Ray had been extensively seeking feedback from people with a large variety of virtue mindsets, backgrounds and mentalities.

Epistemic Effort

Main worry I have: Cognitive ability is really unevenly distributed, and an idea from Robin Hanson about anything related to Economics that he thought about for 5 minutes, is probably going to be much more thought-out than a 5-hour research project from an average Econ undergraduate. Epistemically effort seems to indicate that time spent on a post is more important than other factors, though it actually doesn't rank very highly in my model of what makes a good post.

A quick note on weirdness points and Solstices [And also random other Solstice discussion]

I can ensure you, as someone who was tangentially involved in the organizing, that it was not intentional. Just a failure to coordinate between the people who created the slides, and the people who modified the song.

Meetup : First meetup in Frankfurt (Main)

Living in Stuttgart and am not sure whether it will be worth traveling out into Frankfurt (Train tickets are expensive). It would be good to know some measure of attendance or length of time to know if it is worth showing up.

Guessing the Teacher's Password

Bravo, pretty much all I have to say...

Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence

I'm pretty sure you just used this as an rhetoric tool, but by bayesian theory, isn't it impossible to construct a hypothesis which allocates a probability of zero to an event? But don't you say exactly that in your text?

even if the alternative hypothesis does not allow it at all

I mean allocating a probability of zero to an event implies that it doesn't matter what evidence is presented to you, the probability of that particular event will never become anything else than zero. And as it is impossible to disprove something in the same way it is impossible to prove something, a hypothesis which allocates a probability of zero to an event can not be true and is therefore not of use as a hypothesis in bayesian math. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong...