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<i>Isn't there a bias something like: "If something actually happens, then people believe that it was foreseeable before it happened."?</i>

<a href="">Hindsight Bias</a> and, to an extent, Taleb's <a href=" more)

I think Robin has won this argument. Removing rhetorical flourishes makes the post easier to criticise in the comments section. You shouldn't be deliberately trying to make your statements more or less persuasive, just say what you want to say as clear as you can and let other contributors thrash it...(read more)

"I am 87% confident you will burst into flames"

Ah, at last a practical application of the observation that bayesians cannot agree to disagree.

Virtual environments create possibilities for shock. The ability to torture a (non-sentient) simulated version of someone you hate, or engage in sexual activities that would be illegal in the real world come to mind.

Also what if, given the opportunity to live forever in eutopia, most minds freely ...(read more)

<i>Well... first of all, the notion that "ideas are generated by combining other ideas N at a time" is not exactly an amazing AI theory; it is an economist looking at, essentially, the whole problem of AI, and trying to solve it in 5 seconds or less. It's not as if any experiment was performed to a...(read more)

<i>And obviously we're not looking for software that lets our users throw sheep at one another. The Internet already offers enough ways to waste time, thank you. More like - how people can find each other geographically and meet up</i>

This is an interesting idea, since local groups of rationalis...(read more)

<i>The third fallacy of teleology is to commit the Mind Projection Fallacy with respect to telos, supposing it to be an inherent property of an object or system. Indeed, one does this every time one speaks of the purpose of an event, rather than speaking of some particular agent desiring the conse...(read more)

According to Norvig, Holmes is a Bayesian. Though I think it would be cool if there were a mystery story whose sleuth-protagonist made explicit use of stats and probability.

Angel, I agree that he comes across as a bit arrogant in that thread, but that's just <a href="">his way</a>. I think he was trying to ask for a list of don't's and you gave him a list of do's, and the ensuing communications breakdown led to t...(read more)

>Robin is a person with privilege denying the humanity of disprivileged people. He's following a pattern that's been >used to justify the rape and abuse of women for thousands of years.

I think it's bad form to imply that Robin wanted to deny the humanity of anyone, let alone justify their rape or ...(read more)