Trevor Hill-Hand

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Coordination Schemes Are Capital Investments

I agree, though I feel this framework helps me put into words how it is both important and difficult to actually negotiate/haggle. In particular the advice for engineers.

What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?

Hrm, that is a good point. I suppose if I try to be more strict, it's when there is a question of what to do, there are two or more approaches, and there is some difference in quantifiable risk and/or reward between the options, and I haven't already pre-determined a best approach in advance that applies to the situation.

What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?

The rule I try to apply for myself is: whenever it is at all possible to open a spreadsheet and/or calculator app. On the rare occasion it's not possible (or would be impolite) the extra experience and intuition will be valuable. There's much more risk that I will underuse it than overuse it.

Decision Duels

I like it, sounds like it's just a debate format that works well in a virtual setting.

I wonder if there's a way to add an opening ceremony that helps determine whether this is a question of fact (proceed with the duel) or a question of politics/axioms/goals (cancel the duel).

Less Wrong needs footnotes

Came here to mention/upvote gwern style sidenotes.

I footnotes are useful too, for citations, etc., but sidenotes are more what I want most of the time.

Murphy’s Quest Ch 5: Fail Gracefully

I was a little disappointed that the ROT13 didn't translate to "accented modern English" as the story stated.

But I'm loving this story.

set of cards

I'd be interested in seeing the output, yes! I'd be willing to help with the graphic design so you could throw them up on Game Crafter or something.

Interactive Bayes Theorem Visualization

Snapping to whole percentages might be better too. Having a displayed value of "87.23%" overstates how much control I have in choosing a specific value, given how the sliders work and how finicky per-pixel selection is.

Interactive Bayes Theorem Visualization

I love this! I can imagine myself using this as an ad hoc calculator, especially when I need to explain my estimates to someone unfamiliar with probability. For that purpose it might be useful if I could fill in my own labels for all the variables. So instead of "E1/E2/..." the page could literally display "Drew a black marble/drew a white marble/..." or whatever I put in.

Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad

You can also grate butter, as in with a cheese grater, and that helps too.

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