Trevor1

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$500 bounty for alignment contest ideas

I don't know if outreach framing is safe. But if it is, this is what I would suggest:

10,000 years ago, civilization did not exist, because it required writing.  The movable-type printing press was invented around 1000 years ago, the computer was around 100 years ago, and modern AI emerged around 10 years ago. Technology has advanced at an increasing rate since the dawn of human civilization, and now it's happening significantly faster every few years. But building a machine smarter than a human is the finish line, regardless of how far away that is.

Covid 6/30/22: Vaccine Update Update

Make sure to wear a P100 mask instead of an N95 mask or lower, and to eat outdoors. Both of those things are cheap and well worth avoiding the risk of brain damage, which remains difficult to estimate due to vague or unreliable publications. Anyone wearing an inadequate mask will probably catch the virus again anyway, so there's not much point in worrying about the one-way valve.

Covid 6/30/22: Vaccine Update Update
  1.  That was actually pretty close to best-case scenario with the air conditioner apology, that woman had one job and that job was to not admit to fraud by a slip of the tongue, no matter how skilled the person on the other end might be at making people slip up and admit to fraud. Admitting fault only works with medical malpractice lawsuits, maybe; and that's an apology for a clear mistake, not fraud.
  2. Whenever I hear someone affirm their belief that a large institution is trustworthy, this is the slogan I use in response: Large Powerful Institutions Are Never Trustworthy, Their Management Structure Fundamentally Requires Too Many Lawyers In Order To Defend Against Power-Hungry Opportunists,
    1. this is a slogan; in reality, listing the types of opportunists and defenses is better for conversation e.g. bribe-savvy billionaires, the military having a very short time horizon on something (e.g. a war or a brain-eating virus), and all the ambitious snakes constantly waiting for their once-in-a-lifetime chance to claw their way to the tippy-top
  3. Does anyone have an estimate of the probability/prioritization that the military is currently worried about an imminent foreign lab leak in the short-term, versus mainly being concerned with biodefense in the longer term?

We shouldn’t let people protect themselves against disease, because they might feel they were more protected than they are. So instead we should make it illegal for them to protect themselves.

That's actually reasonable, because the current vaccines don't protect people much in the first place. Most ordinary people I've met (generally urban areas) tend to think of vaccines and boosters as this perfect armor that make them totally fine. When in reality they're probably spreading the virus at mostly the same rate. 

The authorities are not willing to dispel this misinformation because doing so might compromise mass vaccination campaigns in the future, with diseases that actually kill lots of people. Some things in public opinion last generations, like awareness of lobbyist influence, so the safest bet is to make vaccines as popular and beloved as possible. If vaccination is kept out of the headlines, then that is one less way that vaccination attitudes can be destabilized in the future (with future pandemics, vaccines not only might work, but also might prevent a deadlier virus from killing a third of the population). Especially if the virus itself doing just fine at imposing herd immunity upon the masses and nobody knows or cares about the brain damage that they are actively getting.

Units of Exchange

Any idea of the tradeoffs between going for it now and waiting for an optimized version? I didn't compare both copies myself, so I wouldn't dare asking anyone else to do that, but if someone else could do that relatively easily then I would really appreciate it.

Seven ways to become unstoppably agentic

That's true, but I would consider that a symptom, not the disease itself.

Units of Exchange

How long will I have to wait for the next one?

The Basics of AGI Policy (Flowchart)

They're cute, sure, until they aren't.

This post was mainly made with wheel-reinventers in mind, but it's definitely true that some people run the risk of becoming outright cancerous if they're left in the cold for too long without affordable access to policy knowledge.

Seven ways to become unstoppably agentic

Using twitter for self-improvement comes with significant and serious risks, many of which are nearly impossible to explain to any human, and are only solvable by not using twitter.

The Basics of AGI Policy (Flowchart)

If you have any other basic books to propose, or advanced books, please say so. I will probably read them.

Everything you need to know about UFOs (in 26 words)

I'm mainly referring to the pentagon's recent bizarre claims about UFO footage e.g. from navy sensors. But yeah, I can totally buy that the military has been vacillating back and forth over whether to encourage people in rural areas to photograph spy-plane-like phenomenon, Possibly including difficulties with the rural people having incentives to forge and sell evidence, which could suddenly become much less of a problem in the late 2010s due to new technology that can handle all sorts of false positives.

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