Let's say the market prices in a 0.1% chance of extinction per century, and you think there's a 50% chance we're dead in the next 25 years. This is about 12 bits of evidence.
Where did the 12 bits number come from? I'm getting bits.
Edit: I think it comes from the odds ratio: bits.
I've thought about this before, and the solution I came up with is to denominate the bets in short term treasury bonds instead of dollars.