TRIZ-Ingenieur
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Obviously Singleton AIs have a high risk to get extinct by low probability events before they initiate Cosmic Endowment. Otherwise we would have found evidence. Given the foom development speed a singeton AI might decide after few decades that it does not need human assistance any more. It extinguishes humankind to maximize its resources. Biological life had billions of years to optimize even against rarest events. A gamma ray burst or any other stellar event could have killed this Singleton AI. How we are currently designing AI will definetely not lead to a Singleton AI that will mangle its mind for 10 million years until it decides about the future of humankind.
For real story understanding more complex models will be necessary than off-the-shelf convolutional deep NN. If these complex network structures were subjected to a traumatic event these networks will work properly as before after some time. But if something triggers the memory of this traumatic event subnetworks will run wild: Their outputs will reach extremes and will influence all other subnetworks with biases. This biases could be: Everything you observe is the opposite of what you think - you cannot trust your teacher, you cannot trust anybody, everything around you is turning against you. Try to protect yourself against this by all means available.
The effect could be that backprop learning gradients will be inverted and learning deviates from its normal functionality.
All risks from existing viral/bacterial sources are proven to be of non-existential risk to humanity. If the mortality rate is close to 100% the expansion is slowed down by killing potential disease distributors. In addition global measures will prevent mass spreading.
Regarding human/AI designed bio weapons: The longer the incubation period the more dangerous a bio-weapon will be. To extinguish the entire human race the incubation time has to be in the range of years together with an almost 100% successful termination functionality. From observation of the very first deaths to finding cure may get faster than with HIV for two reasons: Technology is more advanced now, and facing extinction the humans will put all available energy into cure.
What remains is a Trojan horse infection that is waiting for a trigger. If 100% of humans are infected the trigger molecule could be spread into the stratosphere. This could be it for us.
We teach children simple morality rules with stories of distinct good and evil behaviour. We protect children from disturbing movies that are not appropriate for their age. Why?
Because children might loose their compass in the world. First they have to create a settled morality compass. Fairy tales are told to widen the personal experience of children by examples of good and evil behaviour. When the morality base is settled children are ready for real life stories without these black/white distinctions. Children who experience a shocking event that changes everything in their life "age faster" than their peers. Education and stories try to prepare children for these kinds of events. Real life is... (read more)
But people underestimate how much more science needs to be done.
The big thing that is missing is meta-cognitive self reflection. It might turn out that even today's RNN structures are sufficient and the only lacking answer is how to interconnect multi-columnar networks with meta-cognition networks.
it’s probably not going to be useful to build a product tomorrow.
Yes. Given the architecture is right and capable few science is needed to train this AGI. It will learn on its own.
The amount of safety related research is for sure underestimated. Evolution of biological brains never needed extra constraints. Society needed and created constraints. And it had time to do so. If science gets the architecture right - do the scientists really know what is going on inside their networks? How can developers integrate safety? There will not be a society of similarly capable AIs that can self-constrain its members. These are critical science issues especially because we have little we can copy from.
So the AI turns its attention to examining certain blobs of binary code - code composing operating systems, or routers, or DNS services - and then takes over all the poorly defended computers on the Internet. [AI Foom Debate, Eliezer Yudkowski]
Capturing resource bonanzas might be enough to make AI go FOOM. It is even more effective if the bonanza is not only a dumb computing resource but offers useful data, knowledge and AI capabilities.
Therefore attackers (humans, AI-assisted humans, AIs) may want:
Attack principles
Resource attack (hardware, firmware, operating system, firewall) or indirect spear attack on the
My idea of a regulatory body is not that of a powerful institution that it deeply interacts with all ongoing projects because of the known fallible members who could misuse their power.
My idea of a regulatory body could be more that of a TÜV interconnected with institutions who do AI safety research and develop safety standards, test methods and test data. Going back to the TÜVs foundation task: pressure vessel certification. Any qualified test institution in the world can check if it is safe to use a given pressure vessel based on established design tests, safety measures checks, material testing methods and real pressure check tests. The amount of safety measures, tests... (read 643 more words →)
Do you have any idea how to make development teams invest substantial parts in safety measures?
Because all regulation does is redistribute power between fallible humans.
Yes. The regulatory body takes power away from the fallible human. If this human teams up with his evil AI he will become master of the universe. Above all of us including you. The redistribution will take power from to the synergetic entity of human and AI and all human beings on earth will gain power except the few ones entangled with that AI.
Who is that "we"?
Citizens concerned about possible negative outcomes of Singularity. Today this "we" is only a small community. In a few years this "we" will include most of the educated population of earth. As soon as a wider... (read more)
Why not check out the AGI capabilities of Alphago... It might be possible to train chess without architectural modifications. Each chessboard square could be modelled by a 2x2 three-state Go field storing information about chess figure type. How good can Alphago get? How much of its Go playing abilities will it loose?