Tsuki

Yes. I get that. We cannot use A and ~A to update our estimates in the same way at the same time. That's not the same as saying that it is impossible for A and ~A to be evidence of the same thing. One could work on Tuesday, and the other could work on Friday, depending on the situation. That was my only point: can't generalize a timeline but need to operate at specific points on that timeline. That goes back to the justification for interning Japanese citizens. If we say ~A just can't ever be evidence of B because at some previous time A was evidence for... (read more)

I think I understand that a little better now. So thank you for taking the time to explain that to me.

Even so, it seems all I must do is add to my counterexample a prior track record of the little boy changing strategies while pretending to go along with authority. Reconsidering my little boy example with that in mind, does that change your reply?

Also, I fail to see how your response ameliorates my objection to the claim "it is impossible for A and ~A to both be evidence for B." By your own explanation, they are both evidence, albeit offering unequal relative probabilities (forgive me if... (read more)

The reply that it "is impossible for A and ~A to both be evidence for B" is to ignore what Frank said in favor of insisting on the very overgeneralization I think he was trying to point out. It's not impossible at all when we are being imprecise enough about the prior expectations involved, such as when we lump all moments in a sustained effort together.

Here's an example to illustrate what I'm saying: Say you are a parent of a 10 year old boy who generally wants to stay up past his bedtime. His protests vary from occasional temper tantrums to the usual slumped-shoulders expression of disappointment that... (read 492 more words →)